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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

TheConduit on 28 September 2009

The initial surge to sales of the PS3 slim is cooling while the Wii price cut will no doubt allow the Wii to take the lead again. The Wii also see's a much higher rise in sales around the Christmas period than the other consoles



PSWii

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Avinash_Tyagi on 28 September 2009
ViolentPhlegm said:

@Avinash: Reaching 10 million by year's end means a 73% increase over last year. Or put another way, this is equivalent to 250,000 for each of the 3 peak holiday weeks plus average weekly sales of 62,500 the rest of the time from here on in.

End of February can be done with the same holiday hump described above and average weekly sales of over 35,000 for the rest of the period.

Hmmm...

@ZorroX: The answer to your question is neither:  Not everyone sees it and it's not only you. ;)


I know, that's why I said its possible that it will do it by the end of the year, and definite that it will do it by February, if NSMB Wii is able to replicate the DS versions success, then doing it this year is not out of the question, if its less, then it'll be early next year.

 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Netyaroze on 28 September 2009

Sony maybe correct but you overestimate the Wii. The Hype for the Wii cooled down and the games and the Pricecut wont change that.



ZorroX on 28 September 2009

ClaudeLv250 - PS3 had BIG games, but not HUGE. FFXIII will be First 2 mln. seller on PS3 in Japan. This game is HUGE.
Big games like MGS4 and RE5 sold 77k and 40k PS3 on launch weeks, but FFXIII demo alone sold 60k, same as PS3 was selling maximum during Christmas 2008.

FFXIII alone will sell 150k PS3 + regular Christmas sales bost with new price, which means around 220-250k that week.
If some MH3 sold something like 90K Wii, during regular time. You expect FFXIII to do only twice more and during Christmas with new PS3 price?
You people seriously underestimating FFXIII selling power.
1st bundle shipment already sold out.

Uncharted? Assassin's Creed II? Ratchet & Clank? Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 - yeah, these are games, to sell 100-150k LTD in Japan. However, they will hold PS3 at 40k+ till the end of year.
The other games are like 150-250k, of`course not very big, but comapred to Wii this will be enough.
Well, Wii has several games which will sell 250-500k but that`s not such big difference.
Tales of Graces to be 500k+ you must be dreaming?
And Wii fit, just like Wii sport resort won`t give visible hardware boost.

ioi - those numbers look nice, and somehow even legit), but i expect PS3 to stay above 40-50k for the rest of year. And FFXIII boost to be much bigger, than what you expect.
While Wii numbers, well, there must be some drop in sales, since there is a trend for that. And, those numbers could be right, if PS3 wouldn`t be a serious competitor this year, if there wouldn`t be Slim model and FFXIII release.
I see Wii doing 100-150k during Christmas boost in best case.



kopstudent89 on 28 September 2009

i was abt to say taht even GC did above 100k before, i saw ioi already did. Really now, the Wii's decline in Japan started about spetember last year, much earlier than the west. That was due to a very weak lineup, especially in Japan were it's essential to see constant releases. The Wii had only AC, Taiko, and Wii music that were regarded as big hits(Wii music didnt even manage 500k).

Whereas this year SW3, NSMB, Super robot taisen, tales, FFCC, WF+ coupled with taiko, WSR effect, and a couple of 100-200k hits(hudson and naruto). SW3 and Tales i predict will be huge for Wii, and NSMB will eclipse AC definitely, whats more to compare?



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kopstudent89 on 28 September 2009

Sry for double post, but let me say this. If you guys are lookin for trends then here's one.

first half 2008 Wii > first half 2007 Wii, however that trend didnt continue towards the holidays why? Well the Wii momentum kept goin in 2007 with Wii Fit, SMG, and the Wii sports effect still there + more games. In 2008 the wii couldnt keep the year's first half momentum, and didnt end strongly. Yes only AC did a mark in the holidays whereas the wii fit effect started dwindling(though it still did decent numbers), and yet the Wii ended up at abt 150k due to the fact that Nintendo always outdoes itself in the holidays.

Well let's enter 2009, Wii had no sort of momentum whatsoever, sales were low(sub 20k) till WSR adn MH3 came and changed that a little, now we have a pricecut with all the mentiond games above(i always forget Mario and sonic also), and we're seein potentially 5 500k+ sellers for Wii, with 2 games who are 2ml+ potential sellers yet people still cant see the outperforming 2008 numbers? very weird. oh and hell no most of the PS3 games u mentioned are gna be below 100k, sry for this but its the truth.

All i see now is PS3 returnin to sub 20k levels with small bumps from Tekken and bayonetta, until the holidays and FF hit.



Viper1 on 28 September 2009
ZorroX said:

but i expect PS3 to stay above 40-50k for the rest of year.

It won't even do 40k-50k next week and will fall further still until November.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

samus aran rules on 28 September 2009
ZorroX said:

ClaudeLv250 - PS3 had BIG games, but not HUGE. FFXIII will be First 2 mln. seller on PS3 in Japan. This game is HUGE.
Big games like MGS4 and RE5 sold 77k and 40k PS3 on launch weeks, but FFXIII demo alone sold 60k, same as PS3 was selling maximum during Christmas 2008.

FFXIII alone will sell 150k PS3 + regular Christmas sales bost with new price, which means around 220-250k that week.
If some MH3 sold something like 90K Wii, during regular time. You expect FFXIII to do only twice more and during Christmas with new PS3 price?
You people seriously underestimating FFXIII selling power.
1st bundle shipment already sold out.

Uncharted? Assassin's Creed II? Ratchet & Clank? Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 - yeah, these are games, to sell 100-150k LTD in Japan. However, they will hold PS3 at 40k+ till the end of year.
The other games are like 150-250k, of`course not very big, but comapred to Wii this will be enough.
Well, Wii has several games which will sell 250-500k but that`s not such big difference.
Tales of Graces to be 500k+ you must be dreaming?
And Wii fit, just like Wii sport resort won`t give visible hardware boost.

ioi - those numbers look nice, and somehow even legit), but i expect PS3 to stay above 40-50k for the rest of year. And FFXIII boost to be much bigger, than what you expect.
While Wii numbers, well, there must be some drop in sales, since there is a trend for that. And, those numbers could be right, if PS3 wouldn`t be a serious competitor this year, if there wouldn`t be Slim model and FFXIII release.
I see Wii doing 100-150k during Christmas boost in best case.

I think that there is a huge risk you´ll get dissapointed next week already. I think PS3 will be in the 30-40 k range at best.



saicho on 28 September 2009
Viper1 said:
ZorroX said:

but i expect PS3 to stay above 40-50k for the rest of year.

It won't even do 40k-50k next week and will fall further still until November.

Was gonna say the same thing.

@ZorroX

If PS3 is not above 40K this coming week, can we say you are too optmistic on PS3 sales and how soon it will reach 5 mil?



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

ZorroX on 28 September 2009

kopstudent89 - on "first half 2008 Wii > first half 2007 Wii,"
That is not true. Not to mention, that Wii had shortages in first half of 2007.

Okey, most time till the end of year PS3 will be 40k+.
It`s not like those several thousands will change anything, if it sells 38k or 42k.

But now, on Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sport Resort:
http://www.vgchartz.com/jweekly.php?date=39992 - 350k +21,5k Wii
http://www.vgchartz.com/jweekly.php?date=39999 - 500k +24,5k Wii
http://www.vgchartz.com/jweekly.php?date=40006 - 600k +21,5k Wii

Wow, it`s a million seller in Japan already, just like Wi Fit Plus probably will be, but HW sales?
Before i made my expectation for other Wii games, what so special about Wii lineup except NSMB? And how you explain no boost from BIG game release, because i have my explanation, but want to hear yours people.