This is my absolutely fantastic thread of Nintendomination prediction for rest of this fiscal year. (Ends March 2010)

For you new comers I have successfully predicted Wii dominance from before the launch of the Wii with good accuracy. If you look at one of my first posts I am really close on Wii's first year sales and I picked the exact month Wii would pass 360 WW. In fact the only big item like this I have been wrong about was that Wii has yet to break 50% market share.

This is what we know.

Wii will be $199 next week.
Wii Fit+ and NSMBWii before xmas.
Galaxy 2 or Metroid: Other M by March

Monster Hunter 3 before end of Mar plus many other quality 3rd party titles. Please don't be a fanboy and force me to detail them.

This is what I predict

Black Wii in rest of world this holiday
Galaxy 2 and Metroid Other M before end of March
Some other big Nintendo service, like video streaming, before March
Holiday 2009 sales (oct-dec) will be dramatically higher than 2008's
     - holiday 2008 = 10.9 million units sold (still supply constrained)
     - holiday 2009 ~ 17m - give or take 5% (no constraints, lower price, and black Wii)

So for all of fiscal 2009 of 4.9m thus far + 17m through Dec = 22.9m; meaning leaving a very doable 4m or so to meet their expectations. With Galaxy 2 and Metroid coming out and a Wii with a lower price and more options, it should be easy.

Also consider that in Jan-Mar 2008 Wii sold 3.5m on a supply constrained system and Jan-Mar 2009 Wii sold 3.9m without any constraints on a downward sales trend. Wii should easily sale 4m+ during Jan-Mar 2010.

Nintendo have to sell an average of ~1.4 million Wiis every week from now until the end of this year to reach 17 million. I don't think it is very likely.

That's very improbable.

Wii Fit+ won't have the effect most expect, the only on capable of moving big amounts of HW is NSMBWii but also peole are hugely overestimating its impact.

I predict roughly the same amount as last year considering sales are almost half of what they were last year weekly.

Nintendo won't meet projections.

How do we know for sure that either Metroid or Galaxy 2 are coming out by March? I figured it would be something like Metroid in August and Galaxy 2 in Sep-Nov next year. Did I miss an announcement or something?

Also, other than the Metroid/Galaxy confusion on my part, I agree with everything else. Maybe not 17m this Christmas. I can't predict a number... but I'll say over 14m. Records will be broken at the very least.

lolololololol

SMG2 and MOM aren't coming before March. SMG will be Q2 (April?) but Other M is most likely an August or Sept release.

I'm going to say that here is no way that Nintendo will put two heavy hitters out before march.Either Galaxy or Metroid will be released and then several smaller games EX (Sin & Punishment 2 or Endless Ocean 2) in between releases.Remember Monster Hunter 3 advertisement is being handled by Nintendo themselves  so that three big games in already crowded 1st quarter for Nintendo.I expect either Metroid or Galaxy to slip to May to July.

Everthing else I have no problem with.

Given the fact that Wii will be 200 dollars and not supply-constrained, this sounds reasonable. A black Wii would also be a good thing, although we're not entirely sure it will be released worldwide yet.

@Zones
It may not seem likely when you put it like that! But when Black Friday and Christmas Week come around, we will certainly see sales doubling what they did last year (where there were supply constraints). If Wii sells ~3 million for the 5 weeks going into Christmas, it should reach that goal quite easily (last year it was selling around ~1-2 million in the 5 weeks going into Christmas).

I predict sales will be dramatically lower than 2008 and will be in range of 7-8 million for the same period

Black Wii will stay in Japan only

Price cut effect will be closer to X360 elite price cut instead of PS3 slim release effect.

Altrough WSR and WF+ might have some really amazing sales in holiday season.

@mortono: LOL, Wii selling 3 million weekly for 5 consecutive weeks? Are you out of your mind?

its not surprising for someone who predicted that multiplatform games would have the wii as the lead version and then ported to the HD consoles to have this fanboyish expectations.