SuperChunky thread of Wii glory and predictions

[Exblackman]

superchunk said:

This is my absolutely fantastic thread of Nintendomination prediction for rest of this fiscal year. (Ends March 2010)

For you new comers I have successfully predicted Wii dominance from before the launch of the Wii with good accuracy. If you look at one of my first posts I am really close on Wii's first year sales and I picked the exact month Wii would pass 360 WW. In fact the only big item like this I have been wrong about was that Wii has yet to break 50% market share.

 

This is what we know.

Wii will be $199 next week.
Wii Fit+ and NSMBWii before xmas.
Galaxy 2 or Metroid: Other M by March

Monster Hunter 3 before end of Mar plus many other quality 3rd party titles. Please don't be a fanboy and force me to detail them.

 

This is what I predict

Black Wii in rest of world this holiday
Galaxy 2 and Metroid Other M before end of March
Some other big Nintendo service, like video streaming, before March
Holiday 2009 sales (oct-dec) will be dramatically higher than 2008's
     - holiday 2008 = 10.9 million units sold (still supply constrained)
     - holiday 2009 ~ 17m - give or take 5% (no constraints, lower price, and black Wii)

So for all of fiscal 2009 of 4.9m thus far + 17m through Dec = 22.9m; meaning leaving a very doable 4m or so to meet their expectations. With Galaxy 2 and Metroid coming out and a Wii with a lower price and more options, it should be easy.

Also consider that in Jan-Mar 2008 Wii sold 3.5m on a supply constrained system and Jan-Mar 2009 Wii sold 3.9m without any constraints on a downward sales trend. Wii should easily sale 4m+ during Jan-Mar 2010.

 

I'm going to say that here is no way that Nintendo will put two heavy hitters out before march.Either Galaxy or Metroid will be released and then several smaller games EX (Sin & Punishment 2 or Endless Ocean 2) in between releases.Remember Monster Hunter 3 advertisement is being handled by Nintendo themselves  so that three big games in already crowded 1st quarter for Nintendo.I expect either Metroid or Galaxy to slip to May to July.

Everthing else I have no problem with.