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Zones on 23 September 2009
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superchunk said:

This is what I predict

Black Wii in rest of world this holiday
Galaxy 2 and Metroid Other M before end of March
Some other big Nintendo service, like video streaming, before March
Holiday 2009 sales (oct-dec) will be dramatically higher than 2008's
     - holiday 2008 = 10.9 million units sold (still supply constrained)
     - holiday 2009 ~ 17m - give or take 5% (no constraints, lower price, and black Wii)

So for all of fiscal 2009 of 4.9m thus far + 17m through Dec = 22.9m; meaning leaving a very doable 4m or so to meet their expectations. With Galaxy 2 and Metroid coming out and a Wii with a lower price and more options, it should be easy.

Also consider that in Jan-Mar 2008 Wii sold 3.5m on a supply constrained system and Jan-Mar 2009 Wii sold 3.9m without any constraints on a downward sales trend. Wii should easily sale 4m+ during Jan-Mar 2010.

 

Nintendo have to sell an average of ~1.4 million Wiis every week from now until the end of this year to reach 17 million. I don't think it is very likely.