I think Nintendo will release their next home console in 2012, no earlier.

1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 notice a pattern here? For the last 20+ years Nintendo has released a new console every 5 years. They did so when they were winning and when they were losing. I know they've said they expect this gen to last longer than 5 years and that they have no plans to release a console anytime soon, but I could see them launching a successor to the Wii in 2011. Especially if millions of consumers lose interest in the Wii and HDTV's occupy the majority of homes by mid 2011. Patcher's fabled WiiHD will probably never come to fruition as I've never seen Nintendo internally upgrade or modify any of their consoles.

First of all, Nintendo is huge this gen. Out of the big 3, they are probably the only ones who aren't financially exhausted like MS or Sony. In my opinion, Nintendo is in the perfect position to launch a new console before anyone else. But given the success of the Wii, would this be a wise idea? I know people are beginning to adopt HDTV's as the standard, and by 2010-11ish, with HD becoming more and more affordable, market share is expected to boom. I'm thinking Nintendo doesn't want Sony and MS to be the only ones with the advantage in this market.

I think a big part of it will be what Nintendo 'wants to do' with their next console...

For instance, the Wii's name put off a lot of hardcore gamers and it got labeled as kiddy and a toy again. Conversely, the Wii-image attracted a lot of people that would otherwise not have bought a console.

I don't mind the image of course, it's about the games, BUT a more serious gaming machine with tons of 'serious' games would be a very attractive prospect. I think Microsoft did this amazingly with Xbox1.

Could hurt the xbox 360 and PS3 much.

I could see it happening. As long as they have a way to transfer VC games and backwards compatibility with Wii Games at least. We'll have an announcement this time next year.

i think its more likey to bea wii HD that a new HD console, i beleive for all the patform holders we will see a few evolutions of there hardware rather than revolutions, its just the cheaper safer option and guarantees BC so you can carry on with the previous generation saftley, allowing customers to feel like there phasing towards a new gen.

If something is announced at E3 2010 -- then we know it is coming in 2011.
More likely is something announced at E3 2011 -- to appear Holidays 2012.

Of course, Nintendo could keep it under wraps and announce and sell in the same year -- which could be devastating to the competition.

Mike from Morgantown

Wii HD in 2011 is too early.

And I also think he's speaking too soon about the motion controllers. We won't know how big the impact will be until we see the software to back it up.

too early, as i have been saying here for 2.5 years now any new console launch before 2012 could trigger, and in my opinion will trigger, a big gaming recession. 2012 and later is fine, though i dont see all three out till 2015 and really im starting to push that back. I had previously said nintendo might be the only one to get away with it, but killing a cash cow such as the wii is very risky. I have now move launching the before 2012 as a very bad move. the wii needs to make at least 100 million sold before its replacement hits market. that should guarantee support while nintendos next console works to take over. less then 100 million sold jeopardizes that.