I'm waiting for DS to gain momentum, as it's definitely a far cry from GBA outside Japan, though to be fair, GBC had faded more than GBA has.
Actually, it looks like DS sales should easily chase down GBA sales in Europe too. GBA only sold about 21 million in "others" regions, and DS is now at 12 million. Its only NA where there is any question about passing up GBA... We'll have to see if DS can do 8-10 million this year... 500K in Febuary has to be a good sign... But we'll have to see if the 2007 lineup shapes up a little better, quite frankly...
This year should be a lot stronger than last, though. As for Japan, I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to fade (to some extent) within the next year. The simple issue of market saturation prevents it from selling at this pace for much longer.
I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to fade either... But on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if it went on to sell 40M in Japan... Its obviously hitting a wider audience there, meaning it won't hit a saturation point below 25 million as previous systems have, and we don't really know where the saturation point is now.
Its total sales are impossible to predict. No telling what Nintendo will do. They could release a DS2 in 3 years, or they could stretch the current one for another 10.
Yeah, thats the problem in predicting sales. I'd like to think the Iwata-era will bring long lives for systems.
Agreed that PSP has no chance of taking the portable market, nor should it have been expected to, but they've cracked into it nicely. If Sony can get 35-40% from what used to be a monopoly in 5 years, that's a major success.
First of all, PSP isn't hugely profitable. It was supposed to buoy PlayStation financially during the early years of PS3 and wind-down of PS2. Thats not happening. Furthermore, while getting 35-40% marketshare (which its falling below already, btw) is nice, "getting a foothold in the market" as you seem to be implying is nonsense. Every market leader in VG history has gotten there with their first entry.
Microsoft needs to start thinking about Xbox Portable soon.
They won't. The portable gaming market isn't perceived as a long-term threat to their PC OS monopoly like Google, PlayStation or iPod. And thats really all MS is interested in.