Their 2010 lineup for Japan (I must stress I am speaking only about the Japanese market here) is not very good right now. 

Super Mario Galaxy was a hit in Japan but not really a blockbuster. NSMB Wii in 2009 will be much bigger than SMG2 in 2010. 

Metroid hasn't been relevant in Japan since Michael Jackson was still black. Zelda even if it makes it out next year, is a series that's in a decline in Japan (Twilight Princess I don't think even managed 500k in Japan). 

The one ace that I think Nintendo may have for next year is that Wii Vitality Sensor. If that could take off like Wii Fit, it could buy them a chance to do ... something. 

Square-Enix *must* help Nintendo next year. The Wii must have at least a Dragon Quest VII Remake or something like that.  

The problem isn't so much that all those indavidual series are dying (though Metroid has always done bad in Japan), its that console games in Japan are on a sharp decline.  Handhelds and software for handhelds are selling at a rate of 8-10x better than consoles in Japan.  There's a reason Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess didn't sell that well in Japan.  They were too busy playing New Super Mario Brothers and Phantom Hourglass.

Dragon Quest X however is a different story.  It has a set fanbase that buys almost the same amount of games every major title.  They will buy the game no matter what system it is on.  The only amount of sales they'll lose is possible 'extra' sales, like they're gaining from DQIX being on the DS now.  But it will probably still be better for them to make the next game on a console.

If handhelds rule Japan and Dragon Quest has had its most sales on the DS in franchise history ... why would it be "better" for them to make the next game on a console?

I think they will appease Nintendo by making a version for the Wii, but the DS will also get a version of Dragon Quest X. Too much money and too much userbase to leave on the table, especially if the Wii continues to sell at a lukewarm clip in Japan. 

At this rate the Wii would be lucky to get a version of DQX even if it had to share it with the DS. Square-Enix has never released the franchise on a platform that has been struggling. 

Their 2010 lineup for Japan (I must stress I am speaking only about the Japanese market here) is not very good right now. 

Super Mario Galaxy was a hit in Japan but not really a blockbuster. NSMB Wii in 2009 will be much bigger than SMG2 in 2010. 

Metroid hasn't been relevant in Japan since Michael Jackson was still black. Zelda even if it makes it out next year, is a series that's in a decline in Japan (Twilight Princess I don't think even managed 500k in Japan). 

The one ace that I think Nintendo may have for next year is that Wii Vitality Sensor. If that could take off like Wii Fit, it could buy them a chance to do ... something. 

Square-Enix *must* help Nintendo next year. The Wii must have at least a Dragon Quest VII Remake or something like that.  

Ever heard the term 'lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice?'  Yuji Horii took a gamble and bet 5 YEARS into developing Dragon Quest on the DS.  It has paid off big time, but now he knows he better put the series back on a console where it belongs.  Some fans might not buy the next game if its a DS only product.  Plus, there's only so much you can do on a handheld unit.  They're great for 2D platformers or certain kinds of RPGs (like the Dragon Quest Monsters series), but you can't produce a game such as DQVIII on a handheld.  And that goes for improving gameplay and moving the series forward, not just improving graphics.

That's why it would be better to put the next one on the Wii.

I've said pretty clearly Dragon Quest X will be on Wii. 

I just think Square-Enix will also have a version for the DS to cover their butts just in case. 

The two versions could have different variations in the main quest unique to the platform and interface with each other as well. The Wii version would have better graphics, the DS version would have portability. 

I think that solution works for both Square-Enix and Nintendo. Hell, combined on the DS + Wii, Dragon Quest X could probably sell 6 million units I think, crushing even DQIX. 

I've said pretty clearly Dragon Quest X will be on Wii. 

I just think Square-Enix will also have a version for the DS to cover their butts just in case. 

The two versions could have different variations in the main quest unique to the platform and interface with each other as well. The Wii version would have better graphics, the DS version would have portability. 

I think that solution works for both Square-Enix and Nintendo. Hell, combined on the DS + Wii, Dragon Quest X could probably sell 6 million+ units I think, crushing even DQIX. 

Do you even know how game development works?  The cost for making a DS version would be so large, its not fesable.  Its not like the SNES/GBC days where they remade DQI-III and simply retooled the graphics and content.  This is a whole new game, created from the ground up, made for the Wii.  A 'back up' DS version would have to be made from the ground up with completely original design concepts and gameplay models.  And if there's any Wii based controls or original console based improvements that can't be done on a handheld, those would be missing.

There's a reason the development for Dragon Quest IX tool almost 4 years.  Because they wanted it to be perfect, eventhough it was on a handheld platform.  You don't get that by creating a game on 2 platforms.  You get stuff like 'Simpsons: The Video Game DS' with bad controls and tons of missing content from the console version.

Somehow I think the extra 3 million+ in sales they would get from having the game on the DS in addition to Wii will cover the dev costs just fine. Capcom manages to do it with the Monster Hunter series without too much hassle. 

NSMB DS and NSMB Wii look very similar too, so does Animal Crossing DS to Wii, I could see something similar to that done for DQX. 

I think this is the best case for the Wii/Nintendo, because they very easily could yank the game entirely off the Wii. They have done it before to Nintendo (Dragon Quest VII) when Nintendo's console struggled in Japan. 

DQVII waqsn't 'yanked' from the Nintendo 64.  It was changed to the PlayStation because it was originally planned to be put on the Nintendo 64 DD in 1996, which Nintendo stopped supporting soon after.  Yuji Horii then transfered all development to Playstation (the most popular system at the time).  Yuji Horii has always stated he will make Dragon Quest for the most popular system at the time.  Hence why DQVIII stayed on a Sony system last gen and DQIX switched over to a Nintendo Platform again this gen.