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Soundwave on 20 September 2009
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Kenryoku_Maxis said:
Soundwave said:
Carl2291 said:
Soundwave said:

 

Surprised relative to what?

2009 Wii sales in Japan are not going to match 2008 or 2007 even with a "wait and see" approach unless there is a Mario miracle. 

If there was going to be a turnaround we should be right in the middle of it now with WSR + MH3. 

What about 2010 sales?

Their 2010 lineup for Japan (I must stress I am speaking only about the Japanese market here) is not very good right now. 

Super Mario Galaxy was a hit in Japan but not really a blockbuster. NSMB Wii in 2009 will be much bigger than SMG2 in 2010. 

Metroid hasn't been relevant in Japan since Michael Jackson was still black. Zelda even if it makes it out next year, is a series that's in a decline in Japan (Twilight Princess I don't think even managed 500k in Japan). 

The one ace that I think Nintendo may have for next year is that Wii Vitality Sensor. If that could take off like Wii Fit, it could buy them a chance to do ... something. 

Square-Enix *must* help Nintendo next year. The Wii must have at least a Dragon Quest VII Remake or something like that.  

The problem isn't so much that all those indavidual series are dying (though Metroid has always done bad in Japan), its that console games in Japan are on a sharp decline.  Handhelds and software for handhelds are selling at a rate of 8-10x better than consoles in Japan.  There's a reason Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess didn't sell that well in Japan.  They were too busy playing New Super Mario Brothers and Phantom Hourglass.

Dragon Quest X however is a different story.  It has a set fanbase that buys almost the same amount of games every major title.  They will buy the game no matter what system it is on.  The only amount of sales they'll lose is possible 'extra' sales, like they're gaining from DQIX being on the DS now.  But it will probably still be better for them to make the next game on a console.

If handhelds rule Japan and Dragon Quest has had its most sales on the DS in franchise history ... why would it be "better" for them to make the next game on a console?

I think they will appease Nintendo by making a version for the Wii, but the DS will also get a version of Dragon Quest X. Too much money and too much userbase to leave on the table, especially if the Wii continues to sell at a lukewarm clip in Japan. 

At this rate the Wii would be lucky to get a version of DQX even if it had to share it with the DS. Square-Enix has never released the franchise on a platform that has been struggling.