Just curious. 

1. To which next-gen console will move most of the PS2 owners?

40-45% - PS3

35-40% - Wii

15-20% - X360 

2. What kind of gamers can Nintendo or Microsoft "steal" from Sony? Action-adventure gamers, RPG gamers, party gamers? 

I think they will steal gamers of every genre, though most of the gamers that did enjoy the action adventures and RPG's on the PS2, will likely buy a PS3. The Eye-toy/ Singstar base should move or has already moved to the Wii (when singstar PS3 comes out, we will know more).

3. Can the Wii still fail?

No, obviously not, but there will come a point in which the Wii is the market leader by a big margin, in which the sales will slowdown because the price will be too close to the other two and because the graphics will be outdated. ¿2009?

 4. Can the Wii reach the hardcore gamers that wasn't previously Nintendo gamer?

No.

5. Has the PS3 already lost this war, and in which place do you think that it will end?

No, and they will be 2nd by the end of 2008.

In Europe and Japan they prefer the PS3 over the Xbox 360 and most of the franchises that did make the PS2 big are exclusive (GT5, FFXIII, MGS4, R&C,Tekken6), and the one's that aren't are still coming to this platform (GTA4, DMC 4, RE5). The lost of Monster Hunter 3 and Dragon Quest IX have been hard though

1. No idea myself, but i would say to swap PS3/Wii numbers around because although playstation is such a recognisable brand, most PS2 owners are not brand loyal.

2. i agree, the singstar base (which is big in EU) will probably just keep their PS2s andmaybe get a Wii for Wii sports and maybe somehting like DDR.

3. no it can't fail, neither financially of market share wise (even if PS3 can overtake it, which is unlikely, getting a close second is excellent) and sales go up and down all the time, i think Wii sales might slow down in a proper sense maybe 2010....09 is a bit early i think.

4. on a mass scale, maybe not, but it will be bought by many of the PS2 gamers that consider themselves "hardcore" and there seem to be a few people on this site who previously only played PC games, or havent had a console since NES/SNES that are buying Wiis.

5. depends what would have been considered a "win" before PS3 was launched, and what is considered a "win" now, and what is considered a "win" by Sony etc.
I predict either a very close 3rd with 360 slightly ahead, a close 2nd with 360 slightly behind (wii way ahead) or possibly a reasonably close 2nd (ie maybe 70M compared to Wiis 90M).

and i very much doubt PS3 will be second by the end of 08, i would go for mid-late 09 (which is selling similar to 360 during 08, but with a better xmas, then selling better for 09, and a much better xmas)

1: Wii easy.

2: RPG gamers.

3: Not fail, but it can be over-taken.

4: Yes, it seems to be slowly doing that, although it's mainly the 3rd party developers that are doing it for Nintendo in that department.

5: It hasn't lost but it very well needs to pick up fast before all interest is lost.