Wii Zapper will be an entirely useless peripheral that will sell well at first and probably reach about 1.2 million over the holidays and get a few games that use it good, then fall into obscurity sometime in 2008 when developers realize how much it limits the player in buttons they can use (pretty much three buttons, not counting the analog stick) and motion sensing, (you really can't use motion sensing with it at all besides aiming) and stop making games that use it.

Afterwards, it'll be discontinued in 2009 or earlier. And then everyone who bought it will be stuck with a useless 20 dollar hunk of plastic that all they can play with is Link's Crossbow Training and one or two other games (Duck Hunt Wii, which could be played just as well with just the standard Wiimote?)

 Oh yeah, and it'll definitely suffer from stupid PTA people or whatever going "OMG THIS WILL TEACH YOUR KIDS TO KILL DON'T BUY IT!!!"

 Anyway, do you think that's likely? I do. I'll be putting it in mah sig.

 P.S. Link's Crossbow Training looks crappy as hell, and I love both casual games and Zelda games, but the two should never mix.

How does this vary from any light-gun styled peripheral?

Since the Wii is geared towards the novelty and utility or its controller, I would think something like this would most likely maintain its place as its no so much a peripheral as it is a unique means to utilize the Wiimote/Nunchuck.

 Eh. I doubt it.

Plus most gaming sites say it's actually better to play RE:UC and LCT with just the standard Wiimote & Nunchuk, not with the Zapper. 

It all remains to be seen, The wii runs on gimmicks, and this one goes hand in hand with the Wii's appeal. If games aren't making the most of it now, all we need to do is wait for future titles to justify it. It could go either way yes, but I have more faith in this than the balance board to be honest.

Isn't the next Medal of Honor going to be tuned specifically for the Zapper?

if Wii Sports 2 includes Rifle Shooting, they will sell 5 million zappers

I think the problem with us and the gaming press is we all look at this like its meant for us simply put it isn't never was and never will be. Its completely meant for that new gamer Nintendo is trying to pull in some still struggle with the concept of pointing at the screen hand them a gun shape something familiar though and suddenly it clicks in their head. I think the strategy behind it is probably actually pretty similar to the way the Wii launched in the first place. Its quite obvious to me why Twilight Princess got delayed for so long they wanted us diehard Nintendo fans out in the cold lined up to buy every single last Wii then when we got home with it this useless little tech demo in the box that suddenly gets all our family and our friends interested in this "Wii". From there on the best and cheapest advertising you can ever have on your side begins, word of mouth. LCT is the lure for us and the Zapper shell is for everyone else even if it never takes off 3rd party wise I imagine it sells at least 2 million and Nintendo will be happy with the money made off of it. I think it might be a clever ploy too to introduce casuals to Link so in 09 when Zelda Wii comes out they'll recognize that green elf guy on the box.

I'll disagree. It fits so perfectly to the Wii user base and the Wii appeal. And if Link's crossbow training is fun, it is worth the 20 bug for that alone. Then there is RE:UC and Nintendo says they want to get third party to support it, so I think there will be more to come.

It's free! Why should it be a failure. You get it with Link's Crossbowtrainer, which gets really good previews, for $/€ 20,-.

Games like RE:UC and Ghost Squad (light gun shooters) haven't really been available on home consoles for a while, and they'll be a lot more fun with the zapper, cause come on, what's better than have that gun feeling when you're playing.
Light gun shooters could be a whole new market on Wii, perfect for the busy gamer: turn on the Wii, blast through a few levels and quit, no deep storyline just great FUN, especially in coop.