I know there are several months left in 2009, but I was thinking based on the games that we know Nintendo are releasing in 2010, that they might have a different strategy for release dates than the previous years for the Wii. Previously it seems like Nintendo has been grouping big software releases together to spur sales for an extended period of time.
Launch started with Wii Sports & Twilight Princess, than Spring 2008 we had the big trio of Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and Brawl. It seemed like Nintendo tried again holiday 2008 with Animal Crossing and Wii Music with less success, and now they are doing it again in 2009 with Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit +, and New Super Mario Bros. Wii (with the only other relatively big release this year being Punch-Out!!!). So after getting that intro out of the way, I'm thinking that based on what we know and what is speculated to release next year, Nintendo might be going with more titles throughout the year, but with games that won’t see as big of sales. Based on what we know, here is what I think 2010 could hold for Nintendo's Western releases:
Q1 2010
-Endless Ocean 2
-Super Mario Galaxy 2
In Q1 they will still be riding the success of Wii Fit + and New Super Mario Bros. Wii, but they will release Super Mario Galaxy near the end of the quarter to help boost their end of financial year earnings.
Q2 2010
-Sin and Punishment 2
-Metroid Other M
-Mario Sports Title
We know S&P2 and Metroid are coming but don't know when. With S&P2 releasing in Japan soon, the title only needs to be localized. It also has been awhile since an new Mario Sports title has been released, so I think we will see Golf or Tennis released this quarter to strengthen the releases the quarter and make the first quarter of their new financial year positive year over year.
Q3 2010
-Wii Vitality Sensor game
-Mario Party 9
-The Vitality sensor game is confirmed as coming even if we don't know what it is, and I think like they did with Wii Sports Resort/Motion Plus, the vitality sensor will release a little after it's second E3 showing. Also it will have been 3 years since a Mario Party game by then, the longest the franchise has gone and with the success of Mario Party 8 you know it is coming sometime.
Q4 2010
-Zelda Wii or Pikmin Wii
-Guaranteed hit- Wii Play + or Mario Kart Wii 2 most likely but perhaps bringing another huge DS franchise over like Nintendogs or Pokemon.
Both Zelda Wii and Pikmin Wii have been hinted/talked about for a long time and I think one of them will make it out for the holidays. I also think Nintendo will want a guaranteed massive title for the holidays, and since they've made follow ups to Wii Sports and Wii Fit, I think a follow up to one of their other two biggest Wii games is the most likely.
I think a number of those games might get mixed around, such as Mario Party 9 and the Mario Sports title, I also think there might be a release of an established franchise like Kirby or Starfox in there somewhere. But the main point of this post is my hypothesis that Nintendo is going to switch from relying on a group of huge hit games, to spreading out a number of moderate sellers throughout the year.
So what do you think, do you agree that a more spread out release schedule is more likely next year, or do you think Nintendo will announce it's next combination of huge games to be released? If they do switch to this type of schedule will it be more or less successful for them? What do you expect the release schedule to look like?
