Now i'll try to make a prediction for Wii based on what we know for this FY.

August

2008: 1263k

2009: 885k

Rate: -29,9%

Notes: the launch of WSR in the West.

SEPTEMBER

2008: 908k

2009: ??

Notes: launch of GH5 and The Beatles Rock Band. Ps3 slim, ps3 price cut and x360 price cut.

October

2008: 1189k

2009: ??

Notes: Wii Fit Plus in Japan.

NOVEMBER

2008: 3287k

2009: ??

Notes: New Super Mario Bros Wii in America.

Dicember

2008: 4220k

2009: ??

If Wii is down 29,9% on August there's not a reason to think it will do better in September, because it has The Beatles, but there's also the slim launch, which can eat some thousand units from the Wii.

So for September my prediction is: 750k, with an average week of 185-190k, and a difference of -17% from last year (better than August)

For October the situation is more complicated, due to Wii Fit Plus. But it will sell mostly to Wii owners for sure, a lot more than WSR could do. So for October (5 weeks) my prediction is 1000k, with an average week of 200k and a rate of -15%.

As tou can see the difference with last year is starting becoming smaller in terms of percentage.

In November with NSMBW in America and likely in Eu or Japan, the Wii can do better than his last year: just with America probably is impossible, but with one or two other main countries it'll likely reach 3000k, and probably has a shot to 3300-3400k.

The main problem is for December, the bigger of the year months, but without supply constrain and with NSMBW, WF+ and WSR selling tons thw Wii can reach surely the 4000k mark, and also be able for the 5000k one.

Summing this predictions we have: 750k+1000k+3200k+4500k = 9450k, summed with the 4,5 mln Wiis sold until now = 14 mln Wiis. Than it has 3 months to do atleast other 3 millions and reach 17 mln for the FY.

Seeing this you think that probably I have done wrong numbers, and maybe is true, but in September do you think Wii can be over 800k?or that WF+ will increase the sales as WSR has done for some weeks?

If this is true without anything important, like a Wii re-edition, a bundle, new colours, e price cut or something as big, the wii not only will never catch the 26 mln mark, but will never reach the 20 mln mark, which is a really bad thing.

I explained you this data not because i want to be an analyst ( Pachter --->Facepalm) but because i want to ask you: what will be big enough to give the Wii a 9mln boost in 7 months? What is the most probable of them and dou you think that my predictions will be nearer the reality or the Nintendo ones will be (21,5 mln is the line which divides the two)? Pleaseremember that this is my prediction based just on the software we know will be released, and without speculating on Wii HD, price cuts, bundles or something like this: I will be the happiest person if they meet their predictions.

Discuss!

No one wants to discuss about my predictions??

Well... right now, if things stay the way they are, it's kind of really hard to say whether they'll meet their projections. There's no telling what effect the releases of big games like Wii Fit Plus and NSMBW will be. I'm sure they'll push hardware, but just how much remains to be seen.
It's also way too early to tell what the effect of the Slim and 360's pricecuts will be on Wii's sales. Sure the HD consoles' sales are up now, but that's to be expected. People knew about the Slim and pricecuts and were waiting for them to release. Those sales spikes will go down in the next few weeks as sales drop off. But just what the effect on Wii will be is anyone's guess, though personally I don't think the HD consoles will eat into Wii's sales that much.

Wii Fit Plus and Mario Bros. are a big deal, a very big deal, we all know that, and right now it looks pretty likely we'll see a black Wii release sometime during the holiday season as well. Couple that with WSR, which is bound to keep on selling tons, and the fact that Wii is still the only console to offer motion controls (not counting the Sixaxis, because, well - come on), which is definitely still appealing, interesting, fresh, new and above all, fun, for millions of people, and I think it's safe to say Wii will see a very successful holiday season.
Who knows, Nintendo might even cut the price, but all that remains speculation until we hear anything official.

All in all, whether they meet their forecasted sales numbers is still up in the air, but tbh I can't see either of the HD twins sell more than Wii this holiday season. You never know, Wii might outsell both competitors combined.
The millions of casual consumers who are not interested at all in any of the games or features the HD consoles have to offer are not suddenly going to buy one of those consoles just because a newer of cheaper version of it comes out. Wii was built, from the ground up, to appeal to everyone, age 4 to 104. That's the entire idea behind it, from its games to its control scheme, its interface, its features and every other aspect of the thing. Neither of the HD twins was.
I still don't see my grandfather, a soccermom, five-year-old girls, schoolteachers, businessmen or any other average joe in the street buy and play a 360 or PS3. Those are the kind of people who buy a Wii for Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play, Mario Kart or Animal Crossing. And although it might upset some 'hardcore' snobs, there are a *lot* more of those people than there are 14-34 year old males with an interest in sports, shooting and racing games. (Yes there's a wider range of people who play them, and there are more genres on those consoles, obviously, but that's the kind of games people associate with the HD consoles, just like how people associate Wii with party-, mini- and all-round family-friendly games. Anyone denying that is just in denial.)

So, back on topic, to conclude: it's still too early to tell, but based on Nintendo's projections and the way things stand now, you'd think they just might have a few aces up their sleeves. And Wii is going to have anything but an unsuccessful holiday season.

And before *anyone* comes in here flaming the heck out of me, please don't, just act like a rational human being and don't get too excited over nothing. These are just my personal opinions and thoughts, if you don't agree, fine, but at least don't act like a 5-year-old little kid. :)

I've already made my predictions in my thread that compares Wii in 2008 vs Wii in 2009.

I think that they will fall 4 - 6 million short so about 20 - 22 million max.