Predictions for Wii FY without anything big

[Buzzi]

Now i'll try to make a prediction for Wii based on what we know for this FY.

August

2008: 1263k

2009: 885k

Rate: -29,9%

Notes: the launch of WSR in the West.

SEPTEMBER

2008: 908k

2009: ??

Notes: launch of GH5 and The Beatles Rock Band. Ps3 slim, ps3 price cut and x360 price cut.

October

2008: 1189k

2009: ??

Notes: Wii Fit Plus in Japan.

NOVEMBER

2008: 3287k

2009: ??

Notes: New Super Mario Bros Wii in America.

Dicember

2008: 4220k

2009: ??

 

If Wii is down 29,9% on August there's not a reason to think it will do better in September, because it has The Beatles, but there's also the slim launch, which can eat some thousand units from the Wii.

So for September my prediction is: 750k, with an average week of 185-190k, and a difference of -17% from last year (better than August)

For October the situation is more complicated, due to Wii Fit Plus. But it will sell mostly to Wii owners for sure, a lot more than WSR could do. So for October (5 weeks) my prediction is 1000k, with an average week of 200k and a rate of -15%.

As tou can see the difference with last year is starting becoming smaller in terms of percentage.

In November with NSMBW in America and likely in Eu or Japan, the Wii can do better than his last year: just with America probably is impossible, but with one or two other main countries it'll likely reach 3000k, and probably has a shot to 3300-3400k.

The main problem is for December, the bigger of the year months, but without supply constrain and with NSMBW, WF+ and WSR selling tons thw Wii can reach surely the 4000k mark, and also be able for the 5000k one.

Summing this predictions we have: 750k+1000k+3200k+4500k = 9450k, summed with the 4,5 mln Wiis sold until now = 14 mln Wiis. Than it has 3 months to do atleast other 3 millions and reach 17 mln for the FY.

Seeing this you think that probably I have done wrong numbers, and maybe is true, but in September do you think Wii can be over 800k?or that WF+ will increase the sales as WSR has done for some weeks?

If this is true without anything important, like a Wii re-edition, a bundle, new colours, e price cut or something as big, the wii not only will never catch the 26 mln mark, but will never reach the 20 mln mark, which is a really bad thing.

I explained you this data not because i want to be an analyst ( Pachter --->Facepalm) but because i want to ask you: what will be big enough to give the Wii a 9mln boost in 7 months? What is the most probable of them and dou you think that my predictions will be nearer the reality or the Nintendo ones will be (21,5 mln is the line which divides the two)? Pleaseremember that this is my prediction based just on the software we know will be released, and without speculating on Wii HD, price cuts, bundles or something like this: I will be the happiest person if they meet their predictions.

Discuss!