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Forums - Sales - Predict: Last 4 months sales of Big 3 for 2009 and total 2009 sales.

 

Last 4 months of 2008 sales:
Wii ~ 12.5 million  (Total 2008 Wii sales around 24 million)
XBox 360 ~ 6.5 million  (Total 2008 XBox 360 sales around 11 million)
PS3 ~ 4.5 million  (Total 2008 PS3 sales around 10 million)

Last 4 months of 2009 sales predictions:
Wii ~ 10 million (Total 2009 Wii sales around 19 million)
PS3 ~ 8 million (Total 2009 PS3 sales around 12 million)
XBox 360 ~ 6 million (Total  2009 X360 sales around 10 million)

Last 4 months accounts for  up to 50% of the total  yearly sales. PS3 price cut will result in increased sales for last 4 months.



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Alright...

Wii - 9,884,321
PS3 - 8,113,123
X360 - 5,973,012



 

 

 

 

 

Wii ~ 140 million (NSMB Wii will do wonders)
PS3 ~ 800,000 (Everybody will be buying NSMB Wii so they won't need this console. The sales are mainly for people that need Blu-Ray players or think this is a Wii+Blu-Ray combo system)
XBox 360 ~ 90,000 (Since the price of the Arcade will be less than the Wii some people will actually think it is the Wii so they will get accidental sales from people buying the 360 along with a copy of NSMB Wii)

Of course I could totally be overestimating the popularity of New Super Mario Bros. Wii, but I like to think I'm not.



Wii 13 million
PS3 6.8 million
360 6.1 million



I expect either new colors for the Wii or a $50 pricecut, s

11 million Wiis

6.5 million PS3
6 million 360



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
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For me it will roll like this:
Wii: 7.4 million last 4 months off the strength of new colors and some new software
PS3: 9.3 million because of slim (299), GT5, Final Fantasy 13 (in Japan), TOV (port in Japan), Assassins Creed 2, Uncharted 2, Ratchet and Clank (never underestimate a Lombax), COD 6, and Eye Pet ( I think it is going to be huge).
360: 6.9 million obviously ODST, COD 6, Assassins creed 2, and if they drop the arcade (their best selling version of the 360 console) then these number could be achieved.

I think overall the only game that could challenge the supremacy of Sony's holiday sales is either ODST and new smash brothers because everything else (game wise) is going to be lost in the shuffle (on consoles).



Expect the Wii price cut to DEPLETE the Xbox360 arcade sku sales



Time to Work !

Wii not being supply constrained may actually see massive Wii sales. I hope for higher sales from all 3 this year. It really does depend on what Nintendo do or don't do by November.



Scenario 1: no Wii price cut.

Wii: 10 million
Ps3: 7 million (up 70% YoY)
360: 6.5 million (flat)

HD combined: 13.5 million.

Scenario 2: Wii price cut

Wii: 13.5 million
Ps3: 7 million
xbox 360: 6.5 million



Wii: 9 million, 10 million if they drop the price before X-mas.
PS3: 8.5 million (really pushing the upper limit here though)
360: 6.5 million