It's still hard to tell from now. All we have is first week numbers which obviously can't imply anything further than that. We all understood given the circumstances the launch was going to be larger than most in the same scenario. But we have to see how it'll unfold the new 4-8 weeks.

I'm still going to hold with my 9-10 million prediction for the fiscal year which I still think is quite a good one. But after I see a few more weeks I could definitely see myself upping that number to as high as 12 million. It really depends how well the perception lasts when holiday season arrives and how many they can ship becuase of that.

very bold prodiction... wanna bet?

If the PS3 can keep up the momentum, then it will likely reach Sony's projections. If not, then Sony could be in trouble. I still don't understand why Sony doesn't go by 'sold to consumers' rather than 'sold to retailers.' If they were to still go by the older method, then they a wake-up call. It was like that in the past when they said they made their projections, yet us consumers saw a lot of the PS3s on store shelves...

At the end of the last fiscal year, they had shipped about 21m consoles I think, so as of August it was 24.6m (that was from wiki), so they about 10m consoles to go.... So in 7 months, that is just over 1m per month. It is clear that we will see about 1.2-1.5m this month, but they need to replicated that or beat that in the coming months. Even with GT 5 and XIII I think it is a tough ask

of course it can easily happen now ps3 will sell over 5 millions until 30 december 2009

I'm not too sure of the numbers, but last I checked the ps3 hadn't even cracked 3mil for the year. 10million in a short amount of time doesn't seem plausible.

Um no.  At the end of March 2009 or the end of the last fiscal year they had shipped 22.7 million PS3s.  At the end of June 2009 or Q1 FY10 they had shipped 23.8 million PS3's.  So far 1.1 million shipped in the quarter and 11.9 million to go to hit their projections at the end of March 2010.

iAnd yes it is a very tough ask but if they can get 3 million this quarter, 5 million in the holiday quarter, and another 3 million in the final quarter they would be at least quite content. 

@Zucas

whats the limit of stuffing SONY can do?

1 million, 2 million?

i

Well it depends.  If Sony were to sell out of PS3 Slim first shipments within the first 2 weeks then obviously they would be able to get a large second shipment.  Within those shipments retailers would start thinking the hype is there and saving for holiday season.  Thus it would have more shipped but less on the sales floor which would cause another sellout.  This perception will continue to build up stock in the back to have holiday supplies. 

Thus when it comes down to the holiday shipments they will ask for more because they figure that all they have saved up won't be enough.  So the amount of stuffing will depend on how well the PS3 slim sales now.  I don't know if they could get something like 360 did in 2007 (had to do with Halo 3 in most cases) but they could get a fair amount.  I'm thinking they could stuff at good 1-1.5 million if they were to have continued and strong sales throughout September and October.  Potentially even more if GT5 does come out and with a bundle.

It's of course hard to tell now but perception is good right now.  The hype is there, the early sales are there, and the potential with GT5 is there.  If Sony plays there cards right they can have some pretty massive shipments in the holiday quarter.  Potentially as high at 6 and 6.5 million. 

I think you are right, though looking through Sony press releases I could not find the figures. So yes you are right, but you can't add up... and they had shipped about 24 and a bit million in August, that is what they announced at gamescom, so they have only done a few million