ZenfoldorVGI said:
@Kantor
Couple of things, you wrote:
Don't be ridiculous. Why would you compare an FPS to a hack and slash? GT5 sales will obliterate those of Splinter Cell: Conviction, but that isn't really an intelligent comparison to make.
1) I comapred those to games, in order to reply to his equally unintelligent comparison of GoW3 and Crackdown 2. Read his comment, and you'll see that he made that comparison, and mine was intended as satire.
Splinter Cell is a popular series which has deteriorated over time. Even if Conviction improves, there will be those who have jumped ship. Not that it won't sell well- it will cross 2 million, has a shot at 3, but it can't stand up to a Rockstar North exclusive. It really can't. New IP or not.
2) I'm not so sure about that, but I guess we must agree to disagree. Conviction looks to be a retooling, if not a relaunch of the franchise, and after E3, it is highly anticipated.
I'm not sure who developed Bully, but it was one of my favorite games on the PS2, and it needed to be repackaged and rereleased several times in order to be profitable. As I've discussed previously, using examples like Infamous, the PS3 and to a lesser extent the Wii, has a tough time launching new IPs this generation. We shall see.
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1) I agree his comparison was ridiculous (there's nothing really to compare GoW3 to, since NG seems to be multiplat now), but comparing Halo Reach to anything is just ridiculous. Fable III might have been a better comparison, but not a great one. They would sell about the same.
2) Bully was Rockstar Vancouver on PS2, Rockstar New England (lol) on PC and X360, and Rockstar Toronto on Wii. Rockstar North's only notable games are the Grand Theft Auto franchise, one of which has broken 20 million (just about), and all four of which have broken 10 million. The PSP games were made by Rockstar Leeds, GTA1 and 2 were DMA Design (so not technically Rockstar). Essentially, every Rockstar North game has sold over 10 million units. It's ludicrous to think that Agent would get near those numbers, for obvious reasons, such as the fact that Agent, like you said, is a new IP, and that the PS3's userbase can't support those numbers, except in the case of a massive long time exclusive franchise, such as GT5.
I don't think 5 million is out of reach for Agent, and 4 million is likely. Of course, we're both being ridiculous, because all we know about this game is that it's made by Rockstar North, it has a reasonably cool name, and you play as a spy in the Cold War.
Splinter Cell, the original, sold well over 5 million across PS2 and Xbox, with slightly more sales (around 300k) on Xbox. After that, the series has gone down in success. Observe:
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=Splinter+Cell&keyword=&console=®ion=All&developer=&publisher=&genre=&boxart=Both&results=50&order=Sales
Pandora Tomorrow was well below, Chaos Theory and Double Agent were about equal below that (people bought more copies of Double Agent than Chaos Theory? People suck). Then, as we go down, we see that Conviction hasn't sold a single copy to date.