Reggie points out that the HD Twins are in longterm trouble by sean malstrom

In an article in the lowest rated American TV network, MSNBC has a few interesting quotes from Reggie talking the decline that Sony and Microsoft face.

“The fact remains that we represent about 52 percent of all current-generation home console sales so far this year, and about 44 percent of all current-generation software sold this year, and that’s a total of 29 million units of software,” he says.

“Essentially Nintendo revenues are effectively flat year-on-year, down minus 2 percent,” Fils-Aime says. “Comparatively, the balance of the industry — so our competitors combined — is down minus 23 percent. So clearly our competitors are the ones under pressure to change their tactics through the balance of the year.”

After all, it is Sony and Microsoft who are showing off motion controls. Nintendo is not showing off HD anything. It clear to see who is following who.

You would think by how the news stories are written these days that Nintendo is in big danger and might even leave the console market. One could excuse Nintendo being declared “doomed” during the Gamecube Era due to poor sales of that system. But with Nintendo “doomed” every month of every year, even being the market leader, I don’t see how anyone can deny there is bias going on. It would be like, last generation, declaring how Sony is about to go out of business because of the PS2.

It is clear these these analysts are not acting like analysts. I used to think either analysts were stupid, or they were so desperate to advertise their group so they would manufacture the juiciest and most controversial quotes as possible so they would keep being invited back. But I now suspect some of them are moonlighting.

Why would anyone keep saying that Wii HD was right around the corner? What better way for FUD than for an analyst to perform it? Consumers will think, “Oh no, a Wii HD right around the corner? I better wait.” I’m not saying Pachter is moonlighting, but this is why you do not just quote anything analysts say and throw them in a story. I have no doubt that interested parties will try to pressure these “analysts” to predict something or try to persuade them to say stuff that goes their way.

Unfortunately for any payers, no one reads MSNBC.

If Nintendo ever did cut the price of the Wii, it would be after the holidays. Why cut the price right before the holiday season, the busiest sales season of the year? That sounds like something dopey that Sony would do.

Some say, “But if they don’t cut the price, they will miss their sales forecasts! That will put them in trouble with their shareholders!” And who are their shareholders? The largest plurality is owned by Mr. Yamauchi who Iwata answers to anyway. 57% of the shareholders are Japanese.

Japanese do business in a much more long term way than in America. Iwata believes lowering the price would harm the Wii longterm. And that is all there is to it.

The article says that lowering price points is good for consumers. I disagree. If I bought a PS3 at $599, not only do I have to see all these new SKUs coming out with larger harddrives, but the PS3’s price has dropped %50 in less than three years. Was there anything so AMAZING that couldn’t have waited in those three years? No. As a consumer, I’d feel ripped off.

Journalists and analysts are acting like they are at a horserace.

Monthly sales charts are nothing more than a ’snapshot’ of the market. Does the Xbox 360 or PS3 outsell the Wii on any particular week? Of course it does. If there were weekly sales charts, weekly snapshots, people would be responding to those. Does the HD Twins outsell the Wii on any particular day? Of course they do. But that is a more rapid snapshot.

Examining snapshots isn’t telling you the nature of the ‘race’.

If you go the opposite direction and look at THE BIG PICTURE, a very different image appears. In it, we find that the Wii has only one sku, has never had a price drop, and is still selling quite well. (I believe the drop in Wii sales has more to do with Nintendo adopting the ‘anti-content’ mantra of ‘user-generated content’.) The PS3 has gone from $600 to $300. Xbox 360 has gone from $400 to $200. Despite their price drops (well, we will see how the PS3 performed next month), there has been no real uptick in momentum to the HD Twins.

It is Nintendo’s belief that the Core Market is shrinking and has the destiny to die. So in Nintendo’s perspective, they have to fight disinterest in the Wii and gaming in general while they let the HD Twins sink beneath the ocean.

Price drops are not a move of sales strength. They are a move of sales weakness.

What I find most interesting is the degree of ‘intense’ anger and bitterness coming from our friends, the hardcore, and, in general, the “Game Industry”. Why do they care if the Wii hasn’t had a price drop yet? They say it will hurt the Wii longterm. But if they do not like the Wii, isn’t this what they want?

I find it amazing that the hardcore are suddenly concerned about Wii sales and that Wii ‘must have a price drop’. Their anger must come that they see their godly HD console being almost the same price of that ‘piece of trash’ and ‘garbage technology’ console called Wii. And Wii, except for a few months, will still sell top of the chart.

When the Xbox 360 and PS3 price cuts occur again and bring the HD Twins LOWER than the Wii’s price, then we’re going to see some fireworks from the ‘hardcore’.

People say “We must listen to analysts, no matter how absurd they sound, because they deal with numbers.” That is why they have staffs that do much of that so little analyst can go talk to the press or surf message forums all day.

Sequel to a game that soundly outsold the best selling Grand Theft Auto game (San Andreas).

If analysts were so into their numbers, how come they were so excited about Grand Theft Auto (San Andreas sold around 17 million) or Modern War 2 (Modern War sold around 10 million) when they aren’t talking about NSMB Wii at all? NSMB DS has sold 20 million. Its sequel should get the equivalent of “OMG Grand Theft Auto 4!” type excitement from analysts and all. The ‘remake’ of Wii Fit, and Wii Fit has sold more than 20 million copies, is also not being mentioned.

I think it is telling how analysts are completely missing these releases. Not commenting on them at all is not due to stupidity (no one is this stupid). It is deliberate. The reason why it is deliberate is the question.

It is not that analysts do not *get* Nintendo. They deliberately are not ‘getting’ Nintendo. The question is “Why?”