Nintendo within the first couple months of launch, and then I'd see if it was worth buying any of the other consoles.

For me its the opposite. I love the fact that SONY has had a stable controller design. It's still be most ergonomic for me. I hate the wiimote and the XBOX controller is still larger than I like for extended gaming session and no better than SIXAXIS even if it were smaller.

believe me the PS4 will be in the 249-299 range. They've learned their lesson. I predict next gen they'll be in second or first

As long as Nintendo is making Zelda/Metroid/Mario I'll own a Nintendo console.

But your scenario is really too poorly conceived. It's a simply upconversion from this one which is highly unlikely to happen based on how Wii kicked their ass by not simply upconverting.

Not to mention, both HD console makers are slowly decreasing sku choices.

Here's my opinion on the trends from this gen:

Next gen, no console will be >$300,
only one sku at launch
all will offer motion of some sort plus reg contollers like Wii's classic pro idea,
all will have HD,
Nintendo will stick to SD cards but have larger internal flash memory (reduces cost while giving best flexibiliy),
MSony will have >200gb HDDs,
all will have full online without FCs (parental controls),
all will be BC will this gen,
Nintendo will BC with everything again,
Nintendo's controller will work perfectly with Wii games,
all will have deals with TV and Movie companies,
all will expand their new game dl service a lot,
MSony will have bluray while N sticks to games only accept the new streaming stuff.

that's about all i can think of off the top of my head.

Release order to me is all 3 at end of 2012, with only Nintendo as a potential 2013 entrant since Wii is leader with most momentum and Sony won't allow MS to jump them again.

If the gen turned out as slow and boring as this one, I'd get all three but only after three years or so when there some worthwhile games to get.

Yeah ill just buy the Xbox 720 with the extended warranty of course.

I think that controller preferance is not given enough credit when it comes to console choice. I feel like it's easily a factor as big as games or online, but people seem to overlook it sometimes. I know for me the controller is about 50% the reason I'm sticking with the 360 this gen, and the other half being split between Mass Effect and the way yonder possibility of KoToR 3.

What ever SONY makes.

Those HDD sizes seem small to me, btw... I mean think about.... it's 2009 and I can get a 500GB HDD for my desktop for 75$ at Bestbuy. Or a 1TB for 110$.

Halo wins me over easy....

No doubt about it. The Controller is equal among the reasons to choose a console, detrimentally or positively.