As long as Nintendo is making Zelda/Metroid/Mario I'll own a Nintendo console.
But your scenario is really too poorly conceived. It's a simply upconversion from this one which is highly unlikely to happen based on how Wii kicked their ass by not simply upconverting.
Not to mention, both HD console makers are slowly decreasing sku choices.
Here's my opinion on the trends from this gen:
Next gen, no console will be >$300,
only one sku at launch
all will offer motion of some sort plus reg contollers like Wii's classic pro idea,
all will have HD,
Nintendo will stick to SD cards but have larger internal flash memory (reduces cost while giving best flexibiliy),
MSony will have >200gb HDDs,
all will have full online without FCs (parental controls),
all will be BC will this gen,
Nintendo will BC with everything again,
Nintendo's controller will work perfectly with Wii games,
all will have deals with TV and Movie companies,
all will expand their new game dl service a lot,
MSony will have bluray while N sticks to games only accept the new streaming stuff.
that's about all i can think of off the top of my head.
Release order to me is all 3 at end of 2012, with only Nintendo as a potential 2013 entrant since Wii is leader with most momentum and Sony won't allow MS to jump them again.
