That's a really tough question!

Firstly let us take a look at Wii Fit Plus. Now Wii Fit Plus is going to be taking over from Wii Fit as the pack in game with the balance board. It will also be offered as a stand alone title at a budget price. This means two things:

1. Whatever momentum Wii Fit has in the lead up to the launch of Wii Fit Plus will carry over to Wii Fit Plus. What I mean by that is anyone wanting to pick up Wii Fit and hasn't done so will automatically pick up Wii Fit Plus once it has launched and therefore it will be guaranteed to have legs.

2. Because it's being offered as a stand alone title, everybody that already owns Wii Fit can upgrade to Wii Fit Plus. Now if it was full price, I would have guessed that around 33% of Wii Fit owners would have upgraded. At a budget price I can imagine somewhere just below 50% of owners upgrading to Wii Fit Plus.

So by mid October Wii Fit should be standing at sales of around 22.5 Million. This means that around 11 Million people should upgrade to Wii Fit Plus. Not only that but Wii Fit's momentum will carry and I think another 8 Million or so people will buy it.

Wii Fit Plus = 19 Million copies sold

Next let us take a look at Wii Sports Resort. For this one, I would like to use a picture:

Wii Sports Resort seems to be trending very similarly to Wii Fit when taking into account the boost from the launch in Europe and the Americas. It also launched in the slowest period of the year, comes with a Wii Motion Plus, but is cheaper than Wii Fit was.

With that in mid, I expect Wii Sports Resort to hit somewhere in the area of 24 Million sold by the end of it's lifetime.

Finally, New Super Mario Bros. Wii.. I think this one is going to outsell it's DS brother just like Mario Kart Wii has outsold Mario Kart DS. I think the fact that it's a 2D Mario platformer using the Wii Remote in a very easy to understand manner but with a couple of motion controlled twists along with the HUGE addition of multiplayer cements this game as a 10 Million+ seller. The real question though is how much more than 10 Million can it get?

I've done a full analysis in another thread and I basically ended up thinking that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will sell about 22 Million copies

So in the end it's going to be:

Wii Sports Resort > New Super Mario Bros. Wii > Wii Fit Plus

24 million > 22 million > 19 million

Wii Sports Resort by a small margin over NSMB Wii. Both will easily sell over 20 mil when it's all said and done.

I think NSMB will be about equal to WSR, and both will beat out Wii Fit Plus by a decent amount.

@ Khuutra

Thanks, I had been a member of the site for a long time but never posted. Now I've started and am addicted to making threads (and adding polls), and I try to come up with interesting topics for people to talk about.

@puffy

Very nice post. Well thought out. Can you paste a link or copy your analysis for NSMB from the other thread?

On topic
I'm very surprised as of this comment Wii Sports Resort has 70% of the votes. While that is also what I voted for, I thought some people might have been surprised by the drop in weekly sales for the game so far (although I'm convinced they will level off in all regions like they had in Japan).

Wii Sports Resort IMO.

All will definitely sell a bare minimum of 15 million.

Iwatas 4 to 8 week rule applies here. Sure there has been a drop in other markets (most likely due to the original buzz giving it a huge opening) but WSR sales jumped up 30% in japan last week. Did u notice that?

I think Mario has a good shot of killing it in sales.

Wii Sports Resort will easily outsell both.

Wii Fit Plus probably will not be the hit the first was considering its pretty much the same game with a new interface.

New Super Mario Bros will probably sell somewhere in between the two.

wsr 30m
nsmb wii 20m
wii fit + 4m

@ megaman

I did read that about Iwata's 4-8 week theory. That is why I voted for Wii Sports Resort, but I figured quite a few other people hadn't read that, or read it and didn't believe it. About Wii Sports Resort's Japanese sales, I think this week's bump was more about the holiday in Japan, and is why Tomodachi collection also saw a large rise, and DQ had almost the same sales as the previous week. I think after this week Wii Sports Resort will be closer to the ~70k a week sales that it seemed to have leveled at before the holiday.

@paulkelly
those are interesting predictions, you certainly don't have much of an expectation for Wii Fit +.

After reading puffy's thoughts I was starting to rethink my guess that maybe Wii Fit + will be the top seller of the 3. Is there confirmation that Wii Fit will be discontinued, and the balance board will only be sold with Wii Fit + now?