Over the past few weeks, not only has the 360 HW sales exceeded the Wii's, but the gap has been steadily growing:

Week Before Halo: 360 sells 11k more units than Wii
Week of Halo: 360 sells 24k more units than Wii
Last Week: 360 sells 30k more units than Wii

 And we haven't even gotten into the holiday season madness yet. 

 Nintendo has hinted that they may have supply problems this holiday, which could hurt their sales numbers.  But even with out that, can the 360 continue these kinds of numbers through the holiday?

I think perhaps it can.  While the "Halo Effect" may wear off, Halo really is just the beginning of some soon to come AAA titles that won't be on the Wii:

The Orange Box (just out, we'll see how the numbers do next week)
Mass Effect
Assasin's Creed
Rock Band
Virtua Fighter 5
Call of Duty 4
Army of Two
GHIII

 The only title the Wii has coming out that looks to be anywhere near the potential of the above is Super Mario Galaxy.

Is it too soon to think that the 360 can retake the lead before 2008?

I don't have time to write a fleshed out post, but I think Guitar Hero 3 might make the Wii's list of games with the potential of games like Guitar Hero 3

you forgot super smash bros., wii is a very affordable (more so than the 360) xmas present and a lot of those titles you listed are multiplat, so there will be some hardware selling sharing with the ps3.  on top of the fact that the wii thrives in japan where the 360 only sells about 3000 consoles a week.  if the 360 cannot get its act together in the land of the rising sun its all over for hopes of finishing in 1st.

The Wii has been selling well with crappy games, so imagine how well it would sell if something like Super Mario Galaxy came out.

No... Wii - Super Smash Bros Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy, Guitar Hero III...

This week is closer than you think with Japan (which is not in yet)

360 has a great holiday line-up, but Wii also:

SMG (Biggest of all platforms this holiday)
GHIII
NiGHTs
Soul Calibur: Legends
RE:UC
Zack & Wiki
Manhunt 2
Batallion Wars ii
Mario & Sonic
Fire Emblem
(SSBB if it comes out second biggest of all platforms)

And those are, save 2, exclusives

I'm not going to argue which line-up is better, but it certainly is good enough to ensure a complete sell out of Wii's. So Nintendo: DELIVER!!!

I doubted this only a month ago. But, now I am beginning to think it is a semi-realistic to realistic possibility.

And the surprise might be that they do it by getting better numbers in Japan with Ace Combat 6, Virtua Fighter 5, Assasin's Creed, Lost Odyssey, and Beautiful Katamari. My understanding is that Ace Combat 6 is making postive waves in Japan. Whether that translates to better numbers is yet to be seen...

Simple answer: No way.

The 360 is only outselling the Wii in the Americas at the moment, and as far as I know it is still pretty much supply constrained there. Actually I am pretty sure 360 sales in the US have peaked now and will go down from here until the real holiday season kicks in.

Benga, half of that list of games are commercial jokes.

Do I think the X360 could outsell the Wii worldwide from Oct-Dec? Heck no. That's just about impossible right now. The *best* case scenario would be that the Xbox 360 outsells the Wii very slightly in the US, and is semi-close in Europe (obviously, Japan is the key here, and will sell about 20x the sales of the X360 there).

Do I think the Xbox 360 could outsell the Wii eventually? Yes. If the WiiHD/2 came out a year or two earlier than the next-box, or Wii sales slagged off in late 08/early 09 in the US and Europe, it's entirely possible (in my estimations, it probably won't happen, but I do think X360 will sell closely to the Wii when everything's said and done).