I can see the logic in your arguments and I know you want to add some hope to the system. However, this is not realistic and not possible, not a single chance.

Japan Wii sales are gonna pick up better than ever in 3-4 weeks (SMG)
Europe wii sales are already above 360, metroid releases here in 2 weeks which will boost Wii sales back to 90k (perhaps 100k)
in america the halo effect will slowly wear off in 3-4 weeks, especially when the big other games will arrive like, Z&W, Manhunt 2, GH3

After that, Wiifit will delete all the hope that was left.

Simple answer: Yes way.

The 360 is only outselling the Wii in America at the moment, and as far as I know it is still pretty much excellent there. Actually I am pretty sure 360 sales in the US have really not reached its max peak yet and will go up from here until the real holiday season kicks in.

Thats how its suppose to be written.

I don't see this happening, if it does then it certainly won't last long, maybe 1 - 2 weeks tops. They can't get the numbers from Japan or Europe to consistently outsell the wii. I just don't see it happening.

Exactly what kind of audience is Wii Fit going to cater to that Sports/Play won't?

Also, I think your vastly overestimating MP3's ability to move hardware in Europe....MP1 moved maybe 700k units in Europe, which was inline with every other Nintendo-based game there, leaving me to believe it won't help anything more than what MP3 did in the US (which it didn't, outside of the fact Nintendo shipped more units).

@koffieboon

No systems are supply constrained within America. You can readily find any system you so desire. That is not a issue anymore. Technically it hasn't been a issue for months. Enough fellow posters can back me up on that. You can go get a Wii now any time you so desire.

@RussWakelin

I think it is reasonable and possible. The margin of difference is not entirely massive. What really matters is how the software will perform for Microsoft, and whether the Wii can maintain its appeal. The first is easier to judge. That is a rather nice software selection for Microsoft perhaps the best. Had GTA made it this holiday season I think the 360 would have done so with a large margin. The appeal of the Wii however seems to have very little to do with new software, and more to do with the novelty of the machine. Which is exceedingly hard to gauge. Perhaps a couple of the titles on the Wii will generate large spikes.

Too early to tell, but I do not think Microsoft is going to spend off all of that Halo momentum before the holiday momentum kicks in. Further more they have some stellar licenses in the gray area between those AAA titles. Which should bolster sales. Yes I think Naruto matters, and I think it matters a lot. So I think we could see a slugging match all the way up to Black Friday. Then we should see where the holiday present demand is.

(More) Old Japanese people for starters?

Seriously, what are you even talking about!? Retake what lead, the worldwide lead? If so, why are you using american numbers?

The 360 has outsould the Wii worldwide 2 weeks, and 2 weeks only: Halo week by 11k; and last week by about 5k (once Japan's numbers are in). It's possible it'll happen again next week, but I doubt it.

Plus the Wii has a 600k lead already, and in 3 weeks Galaxy releases in Japan.

 Yes.  Nintendo owns Japan.

Throw in Japan and it's probably a tie this week. So, the launch of biggest 360 game to date caused the 360 to outsell the Wii by 11k units for one week...considering the lead is a bit short of 600k units (again, including this week's Japanese data), no, the 360 can't retake the lead from the Wii.

By the way, Is today, the "NPD day" or not ? maybe last week ?