bigdom2786 said: dunno001 said: Hmm... realistic sales, eh? I'll take a stab at this (all numbers are worldwide)- August w3 (current week) : ~100K (More hype will be created on people wanting and preordering the slim.) August w4: ~50K (Low supply level will severely limit sales.) Sept w1 (Slim launch week) : ~400K (Preorders of the slim sell, supply is semi-restored.) Sept w2: ~250K (Continued sales of system in areas with low supply, middle of nowhere areas are normalized in supply levels.) Sept w3: ~200K (Supply levels off and resumes normal availiability.) Sept w4: ~160K (Normalized level, will remain at this level through October.) Nov w1+2: ~180K (Holiday pickups start.) Nov w3: ~250K (People trying to beat the rush.) Nov w4: ~500K (Do I really have to say why?) Dec w1: ~400K Dec w2: ~500K Dec w3: ~650K Dec w4 (X-mas week) : ~800K (or halved, if there are supply problems) Dec w5: ~400K (Giftcard time; if supply constrained, ~300K instead) Jan w1: ~250K (Supply will start to normalize if was constrained.) Jan w2: ~175K (Closer to 200K if there was constraint.) Jan w3: ~140K Jan w4: ~120K (Sales will stay around this level barring any huge releases for the next several months.) Please note also that these numbers do not account for any large game releases. However, I do not see GT5 pushing a ton of systems; I believe that GT5P did that already. I also do not see FF13 making this calendar year; I see it being bumped to Q1 2010, add 200K for Japanese sales on week 1 of release. Oh, for comparing to the other consoles, PS3 will beat the Wii for the first 2 weeks of September only. 3rd week will be close, but I see the Wii slightly beating it again by that point. As for the 360, PS3 will beat it by ~500K in the month of September. The October-December period will have the PS3 outsell the 360 by another ~750K for the duration, as MS will announce price cuts for the holidays. Isn't that alittle low? The PS3 made  close to most of those numbers last year and still got beat by the 360 Dec 1: 360k dec 2: 430k dec 3: 525k dec 4: 437k ( the only week but look at the chart no one went up and that was Christmas week) Dec 5/ Jan 1: 335K

I'm aware of last year's numbers, however, I also remember that the 360 was also recently given a significant price cut then. While I do see another 360 price cut this year, I don't think it will be nearly as big, and certainly not nearly as significant as the PS3 cut is. I see the 360 YOY increase dying down for that reason, and with the current economy, sales of all systems I think would technically be down this holiday season, but confirming the $100 price cut will allow for a small growth of sales. (I also foresee mild supply restrictions in some larger cities come December. Not 2007 Wii level, but some days will exist where you have to go to a couple of stores to find one.)

Squilliam said: Well the PS3 sold 495k in June 2009, over 5 weeks or 99k per week. it should therefore sell 600k for that month next year or 120k per week. My reasoning? The first price drop which is always the biggest had a similar effect. Im thinking 20% up year over year and the overall hardware revenue for Sony should decline with a 25% cut.

That loss of revenue is irrelevant if it happens, since none of it turned into profit, while this time it actually might. We'll have to wait and see.

Spedfrom said: Squilliam said: Well the PS3 sold 495k in June 2009, over 5 weeks or 99k per week. it should therefore sell 600k for that month next year or 120k per week. My reasoning? The first price drop which is always the biggest had a similar effect. Im thinking 20% up year over year and the overall hardware revenue for Sony should decline with a 25% cut. That loss of revenue is irrelevant if it happens, since none of it turned into profit, while this time it actually might. We'll have to wait and see.

You're not getting it. Your post is irrelevant.

pretty much my thoughts. It will bring the PS3 up to 360 weekly levels perhaps even a bit more but it wont be able to retake 2nd place. Besides i doubt M$ will just sit there and not do some price drops of their own

ajaghvajagh said: Lol mock the "10 year plan" all you want MS fans, it will all become a reality soon enough

I woulda thought MS would want to drag out the 10-yr life cycle as long as Sony.

ireally never expected the ps3 to catch up if it does than the 360 sucks, the 360 had a year head start so it should stay a year ahead unless they fuck it up somehow

RolStoppable said: Slimebeast said: - 45% steady sales increase YoY (PS3 sales Sep-Dec 2009 compared to Sep-Dec 2008) - 11.5-12 million PS3s sold in 2009 - Gap to X360 decreased down to 6.5 million at end of year 2009. - The MS counter in Sept with $20/$50 price drop on X360 to $179 and $249 will not be enough, why PS3 closes the gap by end of 2011, leaving X360 in third place this generation. This generation is hereby decided. 1. Wii 2. PS3 3. X360 You can quote me on this. Your first two points are a contradiction. A 45 % increase would put the PS3 to about 6.3m for Sep-Dec 2009. This combined with the sales of the first eight months of 2009 bring the total for the year to just below 11m, not the 11.5-12m you stated. You were proven wrong within ten minutes.

lol Adjustments my friend, adjustments. If PS3 is undertracked by 500K in Jan-Aug the total will become 11.3 mill, which rounded up is 11.5 mill.

I think it has a chance of catching Microsoft, only if they don't cut their price.

Europe: Begins to close the gap with 360 again, a similar situation to the first half of 2008.
Japan: Possibly beat Wii for the holiday season, level off at a higher position than its current weekly average.
America: Effect negligible in the long term. Americas don't seem to be fazed by much

Crashdown77 said: I do actually think that the PS3 will eventually outsell the 360, and here's why. The PS3 will have a 10 year cycle, Sony has shown that they can and will do it wih the PS2 (10 years next year!), the sales will ramp up and as someone else posted, a high percentage of the sales of the ps2 happened after the redesign. Since it's in second place and won't overtake the Wii (let's be real here) it's not going to sell like the ps2 did, so I figure 90-100 mil by 2016. Now, the 360, as much as MS wants to tell us 10 year life cycle, I see them launching a new system 2011-2012, and probably dropping/severely limiting support to the 360 (just going by their admittedly limited history as a console deveolper). So two to 3 more years of strong sales it will end up 60-80 mil (Yes I think doubling is easily obtainable in the next 3 years). The ps3 will win by legs.

Why do people think the "10 year plan" will only work with a Sony Console.  The only dif is blue ray player

The graphics dif is minor.  The 360 does not have a self destruct chip.(LOL)