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Forums - Gaming - Realistic Expectations for the PS3 Slim/Price Cut

Hmm... realistic sales, eh? I'll take a stab at this (all numbers are worldwide)-

August w3 (current week) : ~100K (More hype will be created on people wanting and preordering the slim.)
August w4: ~50K (Low supply level will severely limit sales.)

Sept w1 (Slim launch week) : ~400K (Preorders of the slim sell, supply is semi-restored.)
Sept w2: ~250K (Continued sales of system in areas with low supply, middle of nowhere areas are normalized in supply levels.)
Sept w3: ~200K (Supply levels off and resumes normal availiability.)
Sept w4: ~160K (Normalized level, will remain at this level through October.)

Nov w1+2: ~180K (Holiday pickups start.)
Nov w3: ~250K (People trying to beat the rush.)
Nov w4: ~500K (Do I really have to say why?)

Dec w1: ~400K
Dec w2: ~500K
Dec w3: ~650K
Dec w4 (X-mas week) : ~800K (or halved, if there are supply problems)
Dec w5: ~400K (Giftcard time; if supply constrained, ~300K instead)

Jan w1: ~250K (Supply will start to normalize if was constrained.)
Jan w2: ~175K (Closer to 200K if there was constraint.)
Jan w3: ~140K
Jan w4: ~120K (Sales will stay around this level barring any huge releases for the next several months.)

Please note also that these numbers do not account for any large game releases. However, I do not see GT5 pushing a ton of systems; I believe that GT5P did that already. I also do not see FF13 making this calendar year; I see it being bumped to Q1 2010, add 200K for Japanese sales on week 1 of release.

Oh, for comparing to the other consoles, PS3 will beat the Wii for the first 2 weeks of September only. 3rd week will be close, but I see the Wii slightly beating it again by that point. As for the 360, PS3 will beat it by ~500K in the month of September. The October-December period will have the PS3 outsell the 360 by another ~750K for the duration, as MS will announce price cuts for the holidays.



-dunno001

-On a quest for the truly perfect game; I don't think it exists...

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Gilgamesh said:

PS3 will beat the Wii

The Wii had a good run, but it's screwed now, unless they drop the price by a whole bunch

Says the person who said wii wasn't gonna sell more than 40K [or something like that] on MH-Tri launch in Japan...

 

Yeah, i wouldn't trust you even if you tell me the time, and i have a clock in front of me telling me that's the actual time. Matter of fact, I would look for another clock to see if the first clock is set in the correct time



I reckon the PS3 will beat the 360 WW weekly sales by about 50K for about 2-3 months. I don't think MS will do anything drastic in terms of price-cutting immediately (getting rid of Pro I doubt will boost sales significantly).

In December that weekly 50K over 360 will increase to about 75K average for the month due to FFXIII in Japan.

If GT5 is released and/or bundled this year, than that 50K would be a lot higher for at least 1 month.

Jan-Feb the PS3 will just about outsell 360.

March the PS3 will get a small boost due to GoW3.

End of fiscal year/end of 2010 then MS will price counter and/or NATAL. No idea how successful that would be.



Gilgamesh said:

PS3 will beat the Wii

The Wii had a good run, but it's screwed now, unless they drop the price by a whole bunch

For the ps3 to catch to the wii...the wii would have to stop selling......now until 2011..which it wont and soccer moms will still buy it.



Maynard_Tool said:
Gilgamesh said:

PS3 will beat the Wii

The Wii had a good run, but it's screwed now, unless they drop the price by a whole bunch

Says the person who said wii wasn't gonna sell more than 40K [or something like that] on MH-Tri launch in Japan...

 

Yeah, i wouldn't trust you even if you tell me the time, and i have a clock in front of me telling me that's the actual time. Matter of fact, I would look for another clock to see if the first clock is set in the correct time

lol :P

You'll see >:)



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RolStoppable said:
Slimebeast said:

- 45% steady sales increase YoY (PS3 sales Sep-Dec 2009 compared to Sep-Dec 2008)
- 11.5-12 million PS3s sold in 2009
- Gap to X360 decreased down to 6.5 million at end of year 2009.

- The MS counter in Sept with $20/$50 price drop on X360 to $179 and $249 will not be enough, why PS3 closes the gap by end of 2011, leaving X360 in third place this generation.

This generation is hereby decided.

1. Wii
2. PS3
3. X360

You can quote me on this.

Your first two points are a contradiction. A 45 % increase would put the PS3 to about 6.3m for Sep-Dec 2009. This combined with the sales of the first eight months of 2009 bring the total for the year to just below 11m, not the 11.5-12m you stated.

You were proven wrong within ten minutes.


lol

dunno001 said:
Hmm... realistic sales, eh? I'll take a stab at this (all numbers are worldwide)-

August w3 (current week) : ~100K (More hype will be created on people wanting and preordering the slim.)
August w4: ~50K (Low supply level will severely limit sales.)

Sept w1 (Slim launch week) : ~400K (Preorders of the slim sell, supply is semi-restored.)
Sept w2: ~250K (Continued sales of system in areas with low supply, middle of nowhere areas are normalized in supply levels.)
Sept w3: ~200K (Supply levels off and resumes normal availiability.)
Sept w4: ~160K (Normalized level, will remain at this level through October.)

Nov w1+2: ~180K (Holiday pickups start.)
Nov w3: ~250K (People trying to beat the rush.)
Nov w4: ~500K (Do I really have to say why?)

Dec w1: ~400K
Dec w2: ~500K
Dec w3: ~650K
Dec w4 (X-mas week) : ~800K (or halved, if there are supply problems)
Dec w5: ~400K (Giftcard time; if supply constrained, ~300K instead)


Jan w1: ~250K (Supply will start to normalize if was constrained.)
Jan w2: ~175K (Closer to 200K if there was constraint.)
Jan w3: ~140K
Jan w4: ~120K (Sales will stay around this level barring any huge releases for the next several months.)

Please note also that these numbers do not account for any large game releases. However, I do not see GT5 pushing a ton of systems; I believe that GT5P did that already. I also do not see FF13 making this calendar year; I see it being bumped to Q1 2010, add 200K for Japanese sales on week 1 of release.

Oh, for comparing to the other consoles, PS3 will beat the Wii for the first 2 weeks of September only. 3rd week will be close, but I see the Wii slightly beating it again by that point. As for the 360, PS3 will beat it by ~500K in the month of September. The October-December period will have the PS3 outsell the 360 by another ~750K for the duration, as MS will announce price cuts for the holidays.

Isn't that alittle low? The PS3 made  close to most of those numbers last year and still got beat by the 360

Dec 1: 360k

dec 2: 430k

dec 3: 525k

dec 4: 437k ( the only week but look at the chart no one went up and that was Christmas week)

Dec 5/ Jan 1: 335K



Well the PS3 sold 495k in June 2009, over 5 weeks or 99k per week.

it should therefore sell 600k for that month next year or 120k per week.

My reasoning? The first price drop which is always the biggest had a similar effect. Im thinking 20% up year over year and the overall hardware revenue for Sony should decline with a 25% cut.



Tease.

Lol mock the "10 year plan" all you want MS fans, it will all become a reality soon enough



 

People doing statistic really have no clue what they are talking about... except werekitten yours was good. I didn't read anyone elses after that. But I'd like to comment about the 50% yoy one.... IT'S EASIER TO GET HIGHER %'s WHEN YOU HAVE LOWER NUMBERS! %'s mean shit really... Also, The Ps3 will do better in Japan than 360 did... so again, something that will help with %