I can actually see Sony doing exactly this. Hell I wouldn't be terribly shocked if they unveiled it next year. I absolutely wouldn't consider it smart, or consider it as having real potential. More likely it will piss players off, and developers would retaliate against Sony. However Sony has shown a massive propensity for doing supremely stupid shit this generation.

They launched a six hundred dollar console. Made it a bitch to code for. Went out the gate without a lineup. Took a blow torch to it under six months. Put it on deep discount twice in one year. Their public relations talked a lot of shit, and made the console a laughing stock. Borrowed and bled over five billion dollars on their machine. Oh and they couldn't keep any third party exclusives.

Anyone trying to argue what Sony will do from a logical point of view isn't getting the point. You just got done watching Sony do stupid shit for almost three years. Not only that, but they were belligerent while doing it. Which is just a explosive combination. Not only will they consider it in spite of it being stupid, but they will also think they can make it work, and can shove it down the throats of the world.

Bottom line it is stupid enough for Sony to actually probably do it. Show me a level headed Sony, and I would say no not likely. Sadly that isn't what Sony has been about for quite some time.

generations don't end because the technology can't keep up.  Generations end because sales lag and console makers need a new product to improve their sales and make more money.  I mean, look at the ps2, it outshipped both the 360 and the ps3 last quarter. 

The ps3 may have better technology in it that would mean it could still be getting better games years from now, but it ultimately boils down as to how successful the slim is and future pricecuts.  If those don't take and start pushing the ps3 forward, than Sony might push out the ps4 pretty soon.  However, hardware redesigns can be game changers.  look at the DS and PSP.  The PSP was killing the DS before the ds lite came out.  After the lite came out however, the psp was never able to recapture it's momentum, even with all it's redesigns. 

As far as the hard drive upgrade capabilities on the ps3.  I think when you think mainstream, I don't see many people switching out hardrives.  Hard core gamers maybe, but mainstream no.  Xbox maybe even a little better because all they have to do is sell a bigger hard drive (maybe cut the price) seperately.  The hardrives on the xbox just click into place without the need to unscrew anything.  Which is something I think mainstream consumers would be more comfortable with. 

I imagine this will be the case, actually. Identical architecture with more power (more power to the CELL), and a motion-based interface

Though i severely doubt Carmack's projections. PS4 will launch last, i think this much is guaranteed, due to Sony's desire to make up for lost money.

is that why microsoft launched first this gen? 

If it looks like they can make more money on a new system rather than sticking with the ps3, which do you think they would do?

Different. Microsoft had no chance of ever gaining profitability on the Xbox, due to the one-sided relationship they had with Intel and Nvidia for parts for the Xbox. It was absolutely impossible to get costs down, so the sooner they ditched the Xbox, the better. Sony can achieve profitability for the PS3

I don't know. I think Sony wants to recoup as much of their losses as possible before the end of this gen.

Thats exactly what i thought, this also means blu ray will be cheaper to produce by then and a lot of other components, so maybe it wont have the shocking price tag on the next release, its the next xbox that will have a shocking price tag i think because they will have a bigger jump in hardware

No Sony can't recoup the losses on the PS3. That is purely a pipe dream. Given the losses up front, and the interest on loans taken out for development and launch. Sony is looking at well over five billion dollars in losses on the machine. Hell it becomes painfully obvious that they cannot as they may be bottoming out the price. To cover those losses Sony would need to maintain its current price point for at least three perhaps even four more years. So that they may reap two hundred dollars from the machine that lost them almost four hundred dollar in the summer of 2007.

This money is for the most part gone. Sony isn't going to be getting it back, and the generation cannot last long enough for Sony to even consider it likely. There will be a new next generation console on the market by the seventh year of the PS3. Whether it be from Microsoft or Nintendo. More to the point the longer this generation lasts. The less hope Sony will have in the upcoming generation, because both Microsoft and Nintendo are bringing in far more money. Money which they will use to keep Sony down.

Sony is in a bad spot. I think they will try in year four, but if they can hold out for one more year. Then they need to move at that point. Linger around till 2012, and they are going to be in for a whole world of hurt. Sony has a real small window. A little early and it will cost them. A little late, and they can kiss their asses goodbye for good.

no Xbox will release first, reason that Microsoft want to be lead again.
and they think it worked rushing it.

If someone jumps the gun too fast they will fail.