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gergroy on 11 August 2009
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Procrastinato said:

Nope. I can see where he's coming from, but it won't happen for digital distribution reasons alone.  The PS3 is already set up for just that, in any case.  Its really the 360 that isn't there yet, since the HDD is not required, and doesn't even come in a decent enough size to allow for lots of DL content (yet).  You can slap a huge HDD in a PS3 whenever you want though, and it even doesn't void the warranty.

Sony is in the best position to do a "true" generational upgrade. The Cell is very easily upscaled, and devs who have sunk money into making PS3 engines could very easily make the step up to more muscle with a Cell successor -- giving a would-be "Cell2"-based PS4 a huge opening advantage, in terms of software.

MS cannot simply add more cores and upgrade -- its not that simple. The Cell is designed to scale in a near linear fashion, whereas a standard multi-core architecture cannot. They would normally have to let the 360 run its course, since its sorta unlikely that BC will be possible with the next iteration of MS' consoles... except... MS wants to be Nintendo.

The next XBox won't be much of an upgrade over the 360 (IMO), and thus, there's not a big issue in getting it out the door. A quad core PPC maybe, with a better GPU and more memory, built in HDD or SSD... voila, next XBox. I think this is honestly MS' plan, and I don't think Sony wants to go to Nintendo-land as badly as MS does.  They will bide their time, and make a true successor to the PS3, and the PS3 will stay on the shelves for the long run, despite a moderately more powerful, all-digital XBox720, and probably not-as-powerful Wii HD.  From this point forward, the whole idea of console "generations" is out the door, IMO.  That will be the long term effects of the Wii, with regards to hardware anyhow.

Apple is really the company to watch the closest.  They definately have the highest "disruption potential" at this point.  A new Apple digital-only console could rock the console world sometime in the near future.

generations don't end because the technology can't keep up.  Generations end because sales lag and console makers need a new product to improve their sales and make more money.  I mean, look at the ps2, it outshipped both the 360 and the ps3 last quarter. 

The ps3 may have better technology in it that would mean it could still be getting better games years from now, but it ultimately boils down as to how successful the slim is and future pricecuts.  If those don't take and start pushing the ps3 forward, than Sony might push out the ps4 pretty soon.  However, hardware redesigns can be game changers.  look at the DS and PSP.  The PSP was killing the DS before the ds lite came out.  After the lite came out however, the psp was never able to recapture it's momentum, even with all it's redesigns. 

As far as the hard drive upgrade capabilities on the ps3.  I think when you think mainstream, I don't see many people switching out hardrives.  Hard core gamers maybe, but mainstream no.  Xbox maybe even a little better because all they have to do is sell a bigger hard drive (maybe cut the price) seperately.  The hardrives on the xbox just click into place without the need to unscrew anything.  Which is something I think mainstream consumers would be more comfortable with.