I'd like to outline some of the changes I have seen since November when Wii and PS3 launched in the west. I'll also give a look at some of the old analyst predictions...Hopefully, this thread will stay alive long enough to include how the late launch of PS3 in Europe changes things over there. Prediction 1: Analysts: Wii and PS3 will sell 10 million in Japan (Enterbrain - September 2006) My old prediction: False. Japan has never had two next-gen systems sell 10 million. One usually gets above 15 million while the other effectively hits a wall at 5/6 million and sells less than that. My current prediction: PS3 will actually get close to 10 million in Japan, but Wii will still sell over 15 million in Japan, possibly over 20 million. The reason will be an expanded market. Prediction 2: Analysts: Microsoft will lead the console war until 2008, at which point Sony takes over. Nintendo will be a close second or distant third, but the blue-ocean strategy is unpredictable long term (most of 2006, various sources) Patcher: 360 will lead through most of 2007, Wii will lead through 2008, PS3 wins eventually (January 2007). My old prediction (late December 2006) : Wii handidly outsells 360 in Japan, but does not outsell PS3 by a whole lot in Japan or Europe. North America is essentially a PS3-Wii tie, with each behind 360 in the Americas. This situation leads Wii to first place by mid 2008. 360 stays in second until PS3 negates the North America lead with the Japan lead. By late 2009 - Wii, PS3, 360. My new prediction (Feb 2007): Wii handidly (10:1 per week on average) outsells 360 in Japan, but also outsells PS3 by 2:1 on average. In North America, Wii generally outsells 360 (10 months a year), but 360 sales over the holidays offset quite a bit of the Wii 10 month gains (10 x .150 - 2 x .3 = .9 million gain in 2007 in North America). Wii outsells PS3 1.5 to 1 at worst and 2.5 to 1 at best for 10 months in 2007, until Nov-Dec, where sales are essentially identical. In Europe, Sony outsells Microsoft and Nintendo in March-April. Sony outsells Microsoft over the winter holidays, but not Nintendo in Europe. Wii takes over first place in October 2007 worldwide. Sony, with better sales in Europe and Japan climbs a bit closer to Microsoft. Wii is 15-20 million LTD, PS3 is 7-11 million LTD, and 360 is 13.5-16.5 LTD by the end of 2007. Sony never gets any closer to Microsoft after this, because 360 price drops begin in Spring 08'... Prediction 3: Analysts: Microsoft will win (early 2006), Sony will win (Nov 2006), market will split into three equal segments (January 2007), Nintendo will win (March 2007). Something between option three and four seems most accurate. My old prediction: Sony will win Europe, Nintendo will win Japan, Microsoft will win Americas. Sony will be second in Americas, Nintendo will be second in Europe, Sony will be second in Japan. Microsoft loses Europe, Nintendo loses Americas, Microsoft loses Japan. My new prediction: Nintendo will win Europe, Microsoft will be second in Europe, Sony will be third. Microsoft will win Americas, Nintendo will be second in Europe, Sony will be third. Nintendo will win Japan, Sony will be second in Japan, Microsoft will be third in Japan. Prediction 3: THQ: Wii will have 5 million users in Europe and 5 million users in North America by the end of 2006. Microsoft will still be in the lead however in North America and Europe through 2007. My old prediction: Agreed completely. New Prediction: Wii will pass 360 in Europe by the end of 2007. PS3 will approach both as well in 2007. Prediction 4: CNN Money (December): Expect PS3 shortages through June in the USA, expect Wii shortages through March. My old prediction: Expect both shortages to be solved by March 1. Current prediction: PS3 shortages seem to have ended around mid-January when a huge shipment arrived. Wii shortages continue through at least mid-March. I suspect they will end in May or June. Prediction 5: Analysts: Holiday sales 2007 are most important in determining the success of the platforms. My old prediction: No. The most important holiday for 360 was in 2006. Wii and PS3 will have theirs in 2007 though. My new prediction: 360 will win 2007 holidays in the Americas, lose in Japan. Nintendo will win 2007 holidays in Europe/Japan. Nintendo will be 2nd in holiday sales in North America. Sony will be second in Japan and Europe, but last in the Americas for holiday sales.

Old prediction: PS3 sells 70-75m X360 sells 50-57.5m Wii sells 47.5m-52.5m New Prediction: PS3 sells 72.5m-77.5m X360 sells 55-57.5m Wii sells 52.5m-56m Everything up about 7% due to a more expanded market. I did some analysis through the year 2012, and downcasted it 10%, and these numbers seem to fit (Wii having a 55% lead in Japan, 360 at 45% in the US, PS3 at 50% in Europe as market leaders + PS3 winning in other territories)

I'd like to add that IDC has Wii selling 16 million this year (via joystiq citing usa today citing idc), and PS3 and 360 selling 10 million each this year. Initially, IDC had 360 vs. PS3 duking it out, with Wii n 3rd in 2007..

The US will still buy another 10m PS2s/GCs/Xboxes before the lifespan is up. That'll put the US at 50m PS2s and around 30m Xbox/GCs for 80m units. A very quick breakdown on my predictions - I have charts to show WHY I believe this: Japan: Wii sells great for the next 2-3 years at breakneck speeds and continues at a 60% marketshare (PS2 levels), but eventually dies down, and ends up with around 52.5% against a PS3s 40% and 360s 7.5% So: Wii sells around 20-22m, PS3 sells 13-15m (slowly but surely), and 360 sells around 3m units. US: Wii sells great for the next year or two, but dies rather quickly (N64-like), Sony slowly but surely improves year over year, while the 360 takes the lions share in the vaccum of no true PS2 succuessor. 360 gets around a 42.5% share, Wii with 25% and PS3 with around 30% (again, slowly) So: 360 sells around 35m units, PS3 around 24m, and Wii with around 20m (N64 like levels) Europe: PS3 takes off and does very solid numbers, and improves YOY to become the market leader, Wii continues massive improvements, but still dogfights the 360 for 2nd place. PS3 gets the lions share with around 48%, 360 with 29%, and Wii with 23% So: PS3 with around 27.5m units, 360 with 19m, and Wii with 16 (give or take) Other territories: These will prove the true market for 360 and PS3's growth against a great Wii. Wii does well, and stays in the market longer, but against a decent trade rate, the 360 and PS3 do very well. 40% PS3, 37% 360, and 23% Wii. Small market though. So: PS3 with 12m, 360 with 11m, and Wii with 6m. Totals that gives the 360 a maximum of somewhere around 68m units...The US is STILL the largest market, everyone forgets that. Wii would have 64m, and the PS3 around 77m with the market share lead. Very plausible. Im not saying we'll see this turn out though for the next 3 years. It's very easy to say that the Wii would sell 120m units, the 360 with 40m and the PS3 with 30m, but I don't think it'll be like this.