The US will still buy another 10m PS2s/GCs/Xboxes before the lifespan is up. That'll put the US at 50m PS2s and around 30m Xbox/GCs for 80m units. A very quick breakdown on my predictions - I have charts to show WHY I believe this: Japan: Wii sells great for the next 2-3 years at breakneck speeds and continues at a 60% marketshare (PS2 levels), but eventually dies down, and ends up with around 52.5% against a PS3s 40% and 360s 7.5% So: Wii sells around 20-22m, PS3 sells 13-15m (slowly but surely), and 360 sells around 3m units. US: Wii sells great for the next year or two, but dies rather quickly (N64-like), Sony slowly but surely improves year over year, while the 360 takes the lions share in the vaccum of no true PS2 succuessor. 360 gets around a 42.5% share, Wii with 25% and PS3 with around 30% (again, slowly) So: 360 sells around 35m units, PS3 around 24m, and Wii with around 20m (N64 like levels) Europe: PS3 takes off and does very solid numbers, and improves YOY to become the market leader, Wii continues massive improvements, but still dogfights the 360 for 2nd place. PS3 gets the lions share with around 48%, 360 with 29%, and Wii with 23% So: PS3 with around 27.5m units, 360 with 19m, and Wii with 16 (give or take) Other territories: These will prove the true market for 360 and PS3's growth against a great Wii. Wii does well, and stays in the market longer, but against a decent trade rate, the 360 and PS3 do very well. 40% PS3, 37% 360, and 23% Wii. Small market though. So: PS3 with 12m, 360 with 11m, and Wii with 6m. Totals that gives the 360 a maximum of somewhere around 68m units...The US is STILL the largest market, everyone forgets that. Wii would have 64m, and the PS3 around 77m with the market share lead. Very plausible. Im not saying we'll see this turn out though for the next 3 years. It's very easy to say that the Wii would sell 120m units, the 360 with 40m and the PS3 with 30m, but I don't think it'll be like this.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
