Oh stop complaining people!   I think certain members don't like to be reminded about the current situation, so they try to rationalize by saying they don't like how many times Kowen is posting this type of thread (even though I've only seen about 3 of these threads since I first saw this site)

So I have an idea.  We should get a mod to sticky this thread, and he can update the thread instead of making a new one.  This way instead of getting a ranodm thread like this every couple of months we can see it constantly, and everybody will have easy access to it.  

So would you guys rather see it every couple of months or see it almost constantly?

But...TEN YEAR PLAN!

Seriously, though, I'll admit it's looking pretty bleak at the moment. The only way it can really happen is if the PS3's lifetime is longer than the 360's by a couple of years, and Sony and Microsoft don't decide that, the retailers do, based on the consumers.

binary solo said: ^ Just as long as you don't use Chukka Murralitheran. But do they need 12 runs per over yet with only 2 wickets in hand? If you're gonna claim Shane Bond then I'm claiming Gilchrist (while at the top of his game) is either still at the crease or is yet to come in . In fact the phantom Slim IS Adam Gilchrist (much as it pains me to use an Aussie as a coounter to Shane Bond). Though I would say you are using the Manhatten graph in the wrong way by saying they have fallen behind the run rate required. What the Manhatten shows is that PS3s last 5 overs have been low scoring overs (but previous overs have been high scoring overs) and that has brought the RR down a bit, but who knows whether it's below the RRR. I don't think we know for sure, because we know the next power play is just about upon us so we know the RR is gonna go up, but only if the right batsmen are at the crease to take advantage of it (i.e. Slim Pricecut, and Grant Urismo). You Statesiders and Continental Europeans following this OK?

They will have to do a lot to keep up with the next part of the Kiwi innings, especially as Jacob Oram had made quite a few big hits. They have some good batters at the crease but nothing is certain as the surface has taken a turn for the worse and its no longer such a good batting pitch. It will take some excellent work to keep wickets in hand and keep the required run rate from spiraling out of control over the next few overs.

analysis?

Are these numbers by you or some "official" site?

If its the latter i will not post here again due to the offness of this so-called "analysis", i may not be by alot but i don't belive this estimate, no... not by a longshot.

The numbers are by VGC, obviously. All kowenicki did was some simple maths.

What about DMeisterJ?

Oh yeah?

Well thats that then.

its going to be hard work for sony!

Doesnt help that the ps3 is soooo slow to develop for!

I think your maths might be a bit off there Kantor. IF PS3's lifetime is 2 years longer than the 360 (e.g. 720 launches / 360 discontinues in 2011 and PS4 launches / PS3 discontinues in 2014) then PS3 is guaranteed to sell a lot more consoles at end of life.

The logic  goes like this: For PS3 to have a longer lifespan than 360 the PS3 needs to perform well (i.e. at least on par with the 360) for the remainder of the 360's retail life and still be going strong at that point. Ergo the PS3 would only have about a 9 million gap at most (more likely less than this) to make up by the time the 360 finishes up. The PS3, if it's doing as well as it needs to do to be in a position to continue for an extra 3 years, is likely to wipe nearly all of that out in the year following the 360's end (i.e. the same lifespan as the 360). Add another 2 years of sales on top of that to give PS3 a 2 year longer lifespan and even at a very mediocre 5 million sales per year (cf, 2008 PS2 sold nearly 8 million, i.e. before the PS2 price drop) the PS3 would end up with pretty close to 10 million more consoles sold than the 360. In reality the PS3's lifespan only really needs to be the same as the 360's for them to sell the same number of consoles, or for the PS3 to end up slightly ahead. The PS3 detractors are predicting the PS3's demise with a shorter lifespan than the 360, and Sony exiting the console game. I think the fair minded 360 fans will acknowledge that a 360 lifespan of 6 years and a PS3 lifespan of 6 years would probably see PS3 pull ever so slightly ahead. But this generation is at the very least a moral victory for the 360 over the PS3, and quite possibly victory in every sense though that is not yet determined.

All that is very hypothetical and a lot needs to go right for PS3 between now and when the 360 ends for those things to happen. I come back to the point that PS3 absolutely needs to nail this holiday season, otherwise it's going to be giving up a whole heck of a lot of momentum to the 360 and the Wii. GT5 globally and FFXIII in Japan SHOULD be able to do this for the PS3, but it's by no means certain. I think there are a lot of Wii owners in Japan who will by a PS3 for either GT5 or FFXIII, a good number of 360 owners in Japan will do the same. But is that the case around the world (for GT5)? This is make or break year for PS3. Note, this is different to saying 2009 is the year of the PS3. In fact 2009 has no chance of being the year of the PS3. But the last few months of 2009 can ensure 2010 is PS3's year, or if the worst happens it can guarantee PS3's continued fall behind the 360.

@ Squill, very good points there, but Oram's out injured and won't be back till next season, so Slim Pricecut and Grant Urismo the 5th can still do it. BTW PS3's runrate is 161402 per over. The runrate required is 162695 per over. 360's runrate at the same point in its innings was 140566. PS3s runrate in the last 10 overs is 95287. The wicket has deteriorated, but the surface is not unplayable, and a few well timed boundaries during the next power play can definitely bring the advantage back to PS3. But damnit why does PS3 have to be the Aussies? The 360 (box) is green (and gold?), and PS3 is All Black.

Did you see granny Xbot on TV tonight? What a cool lady, kickin' ass in Oblivion at 84.

The information of course is moving data so although the result is not changing much the underlying data is.

You may not like the information contained therein currently but if the minus number starts to move then I bet it will become more interesting. I am sure Mr K will still continue to submit the information even then.