There are a lot of people talking about how Sony might not make a PS4 because of PS3's current performance or that Microsoft might bow out if 360 doesn't get them to profitability. What I would like to discuss is what exactly it would take for a company to quit the console business.
Personally I think that even if Sony never sold another PS3 they would still make a PS4. As for Microsoft, I think they will make another Xbox regardless of whether or not they get into the black this gen. For Nintendo, it's a no brainer.
So exactly what would need to happen for any of these companies to leave the console business:
Sony:
Should the PS3 not break the Gamecube numbers, like some people have mentioned, then I think the PS4 would have to sell less than 10 million consoles before Sony would consider leaving. Even then, they might just shift all focus to their portable division.
Nintendo:
Personally I believed that the "Revolution" was Nintendos last chance. I thought that if Wii didn't work and only sold GameCube numbers than Nintendo would stick to handhelds, however the Wii is a smash and it will take some kind of miracle for Nintendo to back out now. The amount of money Nintendo has means they can afford at least 2 unsuccessful generations without too much worry. It would mean consoles flopping harder than N64 and GC before they get worried.
Microsoft:
With reports that Halo 3 might push them into the black it's looking like Microsoft might not be going anywhere for awhile. However if the 360 cannot sell more units then the original xbox, and "720" ends up under 20 mill or gets off to a very slow start then I see M$ calling it quits and shifting focus to the PC.
Basically it looks like we will have at least one more gen after this one without anyone dropping out of the war. Personally I think that all of the big three have at least 2 more consoles before any of them are in serious trouble.
It took two 10 million consoles before Sega bowed out and they didn't have the cash reserves that any of these companies have and the market has grown incredibly since the dreamcast died. I see these three duking it out for many many years to come.
What do you guys think, all fanboyism aside, what needs to happen before a company leaves the console wars?
Currently Playing:
Xbox 360 - Rock Band, NHL 08, Skate, Halo 3, Mass Effect
Wii - Mario Galaxy