Squilliam said:
Procrastinato said:
Comparisons with MS and Nintendo aside, Sony is doing just fine. The gaming division is turning a profit, and (esp. without the price cut), they're probably making plenty of money these days.
* The PSP seems to be on a major upswing this year, and the PSP Go probably will further that. * The PS2 probably hasn't sold at a loss in eons, and it still sells plenty of software. * The PS3 is due for another chip redux this year (from 65/65nm to 45/45nm), and will likely begin to turn some decent profits, if it hasn't begun to already from the dropping costs of blue laser diodes, and other, previously much more expensive, components. * The PS3 is due for a truckload of exclusives this FY. * Blu-Ray is continuing to push ahead, and Sony has a significant share of the Blu-Ray Association cut of BD drives and discs.
Looks pretty good for Sony Computer Entertainment, going forward (although I think the Blu-Ray money is actually posted in a diff division). Some of the profits that SCE turns may be "hidden" as well, in that SCE might do something like buying BD drives for the PS3 from some manufacturer, and that goes down as a SCE loss... then the BDA gets $30 per drive... and Sony gets some cut of that back (for some reason I think its $9 of the $30), which is reported as profit in a different division.
It sounds strange, but of the 3 current hardware manufacturers, if you were to consider the gaming/entertainment divisions only, I would actually say Microsoft is in the most worrisome position, going forward. I don't find that daunting, however. MS has deep pockets, and the benefits of staying in the console race, and keeping the MS name in the livingroom, outweigh any losses they may face from their entertainment division R&D costs, losses from holiday pricecuts and 3rd party software bundles, etc.
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* How is the PSP on a major upswing when the sales are down considerably YOY?
* How does that indicate good fortunes for the division as it has been propping up the PS3 somewhat and the hardware/software sales for this platform are disappearing off the map?
*Are they even likely to hit 45nm on both the RSX and Cell when they have never done both chips at the same time? Furthermore its likely the royalty payments rather than the chip manufacturing costs which are hurting them at this time. Chip shrinks are over-rated anyway, for example you can buy a 250mm^2 8800GT with 512mb of ram for close to $100 after newegg margins, shipping, packaging, board partner costs/margins, TSMCs margins and Nvidias ~30% margins on the chip itself. The chips are cheap, its the I.P. which is expensive.
*So is the Xbox 360 and Wii.
* That significant number quantified into actual dollar terms is worth what exactly?
How exactly are Microsoft in worse shape than Sony? Their total Xbox Live paid downloads are up 73% YOY, their gold membership are pulling in over half a billion annually and their royalties from software shipments are increasing substantially too.
How exactly is SCE in a 'peachy' condition when their primary home console still loses money to this day and is being propped up by the good work they did last generation? Thats 'loses money to this day in spite of software revenue from consoles sold'
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Squilliam, you sound like you don't agree that the basic premise of making money from the console market is: sell the base hardware at cost (or close to), sell software and accessories for profit.
If you didn't agree with this point, that might explain why you think the PSP is not doing well, despite the colossal number of publishers announcing big titles for it over the past 6 months. You might not understand why having big exclusives coming down the pipe is a big deal. Remember I'm not comparing Sony to MS and Nintendo. I'm stating that they are not doing badly, from an absolute perspective.
Disagreeing with the make-money-from-software-and-accessories viewpoint would be an.. uncommon stance, but you might be able to explain your PoV to us, and help us understand your stance better?
I mentioned MS as being in worse shape, since their profits were quite low in the last quarter -- the holiday quarter even, despite selling colossal numbers of X360s and software over the holidays. That says, to me, that the next few quarters are not likely to look "peachy" for MS, since they are, apparently, either losing money on hardware hand-over-fist, or more likely, they are doing some serious R&D investment, that will hurt their bottom line in the short-term. Its not gloom and doom for MS gaming -- we're talking short term here. They aren't going to have the software profits to look good this coming quarter (or two), and I think we're likely to see that as a lot of red on the report, thanks to whatever it was that hurt their holiday profits last quarter probably continuing to exist. If its selling hardware at a loss that's hurting them, then perhaps we won't see them dip as much... but is that good for the gaming division, as a profitable unit, when the PS3 perhaps has a cut coming soon, and MS matching the cut would then be... perilous, in the eyes of the common stockholder? I hope its not hardware that's costing them, and if its not, we should see a lot of red for the next couple quarters, as I stated.
At least, I hope its short term. It should be, right? Kinda sounds like I hurt your feelings when I stated my opinion about MS. Sorry bud, that's just how I see it. I'm not an investment pro or anything, so probably my statement is somehow misinformed or just plain wrong. You should enlighten me if you can, though -- I like to learn as much as the next guy.
EDIT: I feel like I just went through some sort of time loop there... haven't the FY 2009 Q4 reports already come out, and, indeed, Sony's Computer Entertainment division was in the black for Q4 (not by much, but black nonetheless), while MS's E&D dipped into the red, with a big dropoff from the holidays? Just as I stated, then...
I'm gonna have to call repeat for this quarter, except with more black for Sony, and more red for MS. MS is spending money on something big. Natal? What else could eat up all those X360 software and Live profits? A new console? If so, MS has basically thrown in the towel for this gen, to the Wii, and will not recover their investment easily, or at all.