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Forums - General - The US Economy: the "new normal"?

big_boss on 16 July 2009

rant/ Our problem is we became a country we bought everything (import) from anyone and we exported (sell) pretty much nothing. Then the morons on capital hill decide to spend money we don't have to support companies that are going to go under anyways. Like that british guy was saying " you can't borrow yourself out of debt" and thats what our problem is now.

I know how we can get back to where we were so many years ago, we start drilling oil near California and in Alaska and use a small percentage for ourselves and export the rest. Then we use the percentage of the profits to invest in alternative fuels. The problem is Obama wants "Green jobs" so we don't hurt the environment but that would take years to complete and don't have that time and it probably wouldn't work.

For the past 10 to 15 years we were electing people who were party first, people second and Obama didn't change that. 4 years from now when Obama doesn't get the job done he going to point fingers and blame Bush. We elected him fix this mess not to play the blame game. With people saying that Obama may investigate Bush it just sounds like he's trying to find a reason why he couldn't get the job done. /rant



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NJ5 on 16 July 2009
Slimebeast said:
NJ5 said:

A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.

These contractions aren't yet fully shown in GDP, so you are right to expect this to last a while.

The previous "normal" wasn't normal at all, for the reason that Mafoo pointed out.

 


Double-digits... no it doesn't, man. What do you think is the private business average decline in revenue? That's the number that matters, not 'a lot of businesses'. And next, state and community institutions don't drop many % at all in their production or 'revenue' (schools and education, authorites, the military, science, administration etc) despite the Crysis.

And there are other factors that are included in the GDP that I dont remember rite now.

Plus I hardly think Q3 and Q4 in 2009 will be much worse than the already very bad Q3/4 in 2008.

Look at this list of recent earnings:

http://www.123jump.com/market-update/Earnings-at-JP-Morgan-Up-36,-Marriott-Down-76/33772/

If you ignore health-related companies, I think all the ones there have double digit declines in revenue. Maybe a few don't, but I didn't see any.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

TheRealMafoo on 16 July 2009
NJ5 said:
Slimebeast said:
NJ5 said:

A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.

These contractions aren't yet fully shown in GDP, so you are right to expect this to last a while.

The previous "normal" wasn't normal at all, for the reason that Mafoo pointed out.

 


Double-digits... no it doesn't, man. What do you think is the private business average decline in revenue? That's the number that matters, not 'a lot of businesses'. And next, state and community institutions don't drop many % at all in their production or 'revenue' (schools and education, authorites, the military, science, administration etc) despite the Crysis.

And there are other factors that are included in the GDP that I dont remember rite now.

Plus I hardly think Q3 and Q4 in 2009 will be much worse than the already very bad Q3/4 in 2008.

Look at this list of recent earnings:

http://www.123jump.com/market-update/Earnings-at-JP-Morgan-Up-36,-Marriott-Down-76/33772/

If you ignore health-related companies, I think all the ones there have double digit declines in revenue. Maybe a few don't, but I didn't see any.

 

We are down 14%



Slimebeast on 16 July 2009
NJ5 said:
Slimebeast said:
NJ5 said:

A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.

These contractions aren't yet fully shown in GDP, so you are right to expect this to last a while.

The previous "normal" wasn't normal at all, for the reason that Mafoo pointed out.

 


Double-digits... no it doesn't, man. What do you think is the private business average decline in revenue? That's the number that matters, not 'a lot of businesses'. And next, state and community institutions don't drop many % at all in their production or 'revenue' (schools and education, authorites, the military, science, administration etc) despite the Crysis.

And there are other factors that are included in the GDP that I dont remember rite now.

Plus I hardly think Q3 and Q4 in 2009 will be much worse than the already very bad Q3/4 in 2008.

Look at this list of recent earnings:

http://www.123jump.com/market-update/Earnings-at-JP-Morgan-Up-36,-Marriott-Down-76/33772/

If you ignore health-related companies, I think all the ones there have double digit declines in revenue. Maybe a few don't, but I didn't see any.

 

True, that was horrible. Worse than I thought. (although I hope u didnt misunderstand me, because I questioned your possibility of a double digit GDP decline, not that businesess would be on that level)


Let's say typical private business revenue is down 20% for Q1+Q2. Q3+Q4 can't be anywhere near that bad though, as I said, because the dramatic decline was in the corresponding quarters in 2008. So Id say Q3+4 revenue will be down 10-12% making it average 15-16% for the year.

15-16% business revenue decline could indicate 6-7% for the whole US economy in 2009. Damn, that's a lot. I was stupid agreeing with akuma the other day lol.

  



madskillz on 16 July 2009
makingmusic476 said:

How many people actually end up using the degree they worked so hard for in college?

Out of my extended family and a number of family friends, the only people I know of that are now employed in their original field of study are teachers, doctors, and nurses.  Other than that, they all do random crap. Take my dad for example. He has a music degree, but has been programming for 30 years. Or one of our family friends, who got an engineering degree, designed 2-3 buildings, then went on to do clerical work for the Corps of Engineers. He works around engineers now, but his current job did not require his degree whatsoever. Or my sister, who has a business degree but ended running the entertainment program at a nursing home.

Then there are my two uncles that opened businesses, one a mechanic shop and one an electronics repair shop.  Or another friend of the family that worked his way through the electrical field from the ground up and now owns his own electrical biz. He started as a mere apprentice (and I was an apprentice under him for a few months back after Katrina), and is now a master electrician with two other master electricians working under him.  These guys don't even have degrees.

And then there's Gnizmo from this very site. He decided to get a degree in psychology. It's practically impossible to do something with a psychology degree unless you have a masters, so now he works the front desk at a detox center.

My dad and I share the same philosophy: Just a get a degree. Most places only care that you have a degree of some form, and what field the degree in matters little. After you get the degree, it's just a matter of finding something you enjoy and trying your best to make a living at it. Sometimes, even the degree isn't necessary. My aunt got her GED years after dropping out of high school, and currently loves being a fire fighter.

Straying from this long history of my family and friends and returning to the topic at hand, the current economic climate is certainly decreasing the number of available jobs in most (if not all) industries, but chances are you weren't going to use your degree anyway. Just sayin'.

I have a BA in Communications - Print Journalism - and have been in my field since my senior year - if you count my two internships. I have considered putting some weight behind my small biz, but never left my main field of focus.

My sisters have degrees in Spanish and French, and have been teachers of both languages, and English, for several years.

After newspapers, I will prolly go into teaching or the tech sector, but likely land in PR management.

@ OP: Love your thread title! Thanks for the props!



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That Guy on 17 July 2009

i ~wish~ i had a 14% paycut.

Let's just say my wages 8 years ago > my wages now.



TheRealMafoo on 17 July 2009
That Guy said:
i ~wish~ i had a 14% paycut.

Let's just say my wages 8 years ago > my wages now.

I am still making what I have always made (we didn't get raises last year however), but the company I work for is down 14%.

We are debt free, and have cut costs a lot, so no job cuts yet, and it's not even being talked about, but if it keeps getting worse (and every month is worse then the last), people will start to go.

I am one of 6 software developers we have, and I would be one of the last 2 to go, so not worried about it, but it will be a sad day if people I work with start losing there jobs.