NJ5 said:
Slimebeast said:
NJ5 said:
A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.
These contractions aren't yet fully shown in GDP, so you are right to expect this to last a while.
The previous "normal" wasn't normal at all, for the reason that Mafoo pointed out.
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Double-digits... no it doesn't, man. What do you think is the private business average decline in revenue? That's the number that matters, not 'a lot of businesses'. And next, state and community institutions don't drop many % at all in their production or 'revenue' (schools and education, authorites, the military, science, administration etc) despite the Crysis.
And there are other factors that are included in the GDP that I dont remember rite now.
Plus I hardly think Q3 and Q4 in 2009 will be much worse than the already very bad Q3/4 in 2008.
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Look at this list of recent earnings:
http://www.123jump.com/market-update/Earnings-at-JP-Morgan-Up-36,-Marriott-Down-76/33772/
If you ignore health-related companies, I think all the ones there have double digit declines in revenue. Maybe a few don't, but I didn't see any.
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True, that was horrible. Worse than I thought. (although I hope u didnt misunderstand me, because I questioned your possibility of a double digit GDP decline, not that businesess would be on that level)
Let's say typical private business revenue is down 20% for Q1+Q2. Q3+Q4 can't be anywhere near that bad though, as I said, because the dramatic decline was in the corresponding quarters in 2008. So Id say Q3+4 revenue will be down 10-12% making it average 15-16% for the year.
15-16% business revenue decline could indicate 6-7% for the whole US economy in 2009. Damn, that's a lot. I was stupid agreeing with akuma the other day lol.
