Well... considering how many people are crazy about their bodies, I can at least see where it's coming from... It's still hard to imagine, though.

Come on now, let's find a different route than everyone disagreeing. Well, I'll volunteer to be the insane first to agree. Yes, it'll happen WAHAHA!! XD

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I said it...

I am not saying that certin Nintendo brand games on the Wii, wont outsell it.

Erik - WiiFit is comming out for the DS? Link please!!!!!!!!! Does it fold up in your pocket too? Amazing!
(sorry for the scarcasm, but  I'm talking Halo3 vs Wii. (because Wii history, is more relative to Wii future, than DS) That would be like saying... win XP sold 300 million copies, while Lair bombed)

 I really dont know how well Wii Fit will do long term. The best selling *full* budget game, is zelda, and it's been out for nearly a year, and Halo3 outsold it. WiiFit will cost more than a full budget game. Next to zelda, nothing comes close. The trends/patterns for the Wii are so sparatic, it's not even funny. What will fail? What wont? Flip a coin, becaue I rember when you guys were taking. "OMG THE NEW SIMS FOR WII EXCLUSIVE IT WILL SELL AMAZING." So amazing, even Lair, a total faliure, on a total failure system... (so you guys like to say) Outsold it. I thought MySims was supposed to be one of the million sellers for 3rd parties?

My point is, you cant compare 'budget' titles, to full budget games in sales. I pick up budget PSP games all the time... even if I know their gonna suck. I dont buy many full budget games. Trend for the Wii... It's more extreme than my opinion on 'I dont buy many full budget games'. WiiSports is more than full budget. I'm just saying, I dont think anyone knows how it will sell. But I guarentee you, it will NOT outsell halo3 in the first 6months (worldwide, give some favor for nintendo). And it will never outsell Halo3 worldwide, in japan only. 

 you know im gonna copy paste that in a word document and save it up eh?

cause it simply, will, sorry 

(Here's an essay for you.) We have to look at this in a different light.

Who will buy this game? I'm leaning towards mostly females or older people. Sure, there's some regular gamers who would like it, but... seriously. Which gamer actually considers getting fit in their buying decision? We all play the Wii sitting down, slouching on the couch, and twitching our wrists every once in a while.

So its not about fanboys and pre-ordering. We're talking about shopping instinct and untapped market. Actually, fanboys will get the game, one way or another. For every fanboy there's a fanboy parent. That parent will most likely get the game for themselves or for the kid.

This can't be compared to traditional game marketing because traditional games (face it) target pre-pubescent GUYS. This game targets Nintendo's stronghold - the non pre-pubescent guys.

-Nintendo Wii has a 51% female userbase.
-The 25-44 range has the largest amount of users on the Wii, followed by the 7-18 range.
-DS has a 53% female userbase. I blame Nintendogs.

This game targets all of the Wii's users. For those under 25, their parents might consider buying it. For those over 25, they will consider buying it. So it wouldn't be surprising to see this bought by a lot of people. Zelda only targets gamers (7-30)... which is a minority of the users of the Wii. Proof is in the slides from the last Nintendo conference - the most interesting thing is that 18-24 has the smallest population.

I don't think Nintendo is marketing it as a weight loss program though, so it doesn't have that dynamic punch that it needs to stir the shopping instinct to make it a home run hitter. Promoting daily healthy fitness habits instead of rapidly getting into shape... very typical of japanese culture. There will be strong sales, but it lacks a must-have-right-now element, and Nintendo doesn't work that way, so they probably won't give it a must-have-right-now factor.

This game targets a large market that has cash and is willing to buy. However, this market is older, slower, and less prone to hype. They also don't get excited as easily. Sadly, I'm going to say that this prediction is not going to happen- old people don't work like fanboys. The only way this is going to happen is if Nintendo teamed up with Apple and got Apple's iPhone marketing team.... which actually could happen. lol.

However, you are right in that this is probably the next biggest thing and the sales will prove it.

Thanks for that Spyckie. I still hold to my prediction but it's very good hearing the various points of view and takes on the subject. Part of the reason I created the thread. Your market analysis was very logical and sound. And actually you coincided with basically everything I envisioned when making this prediction. You TOO know how to see the bigger picture.

And you're right. Wii Fit is the Brock Lesnar of videogames (in the good way), The Next Big Thing.

The game that will send through to the next stratosphere.

John Lucas

Well I have to agree with my esteemed co-writers on this topic. WiiFit in no way shape or form can possibly trump Halo3 sales even in global sales let alone just Japan. It is inplausable even Japan and Nintendo's biggest titles such as Pokemon failed to do so, I doubt Wii Fit could possibly do so.

If their is a Nintendo title that could do so Brawl and Galaxy are the only two contenders!

Maybe if all the opening weeks of the game are combined this might happen. But I doubt in Japan alone. I don't think Japan will have a large enough userbase then to do it.

 Well what would basically need to happen is by the time it releases, over 5 million Wiis would need to be sold in Japan.  And then on that same week another 500k- 1M.  Then there is a possibility, but still a slim one.  

Unluckily though I can not create that scenario for you as its almost close to impossible.  

I would laugh as well. And then I'd say this generation is done haha, cause if Wii could do that much then its over haha.

But unluckily this is such a longshot that it probably won't happen.

At least it isn't as ludacris as one person's prediction on another site in March of this year. He stated, Mark my Words by the end of 2007, the PS3 will be in 1st place and Wii will be in last place. That makes JL's prediction look like a pure genius analytical prediction.

My oh my. You have officially gone off the deep end JL.

First and foremost, there won't be enough copies of WiiFit shipped to Japan in the first week, let alone the first month, to let Nintendo outsell Halo 3's first week sales globally. Heck, I'll put myself out there, and say that WiiFit won't outsell Halo 3's first week sales in the first six months. (For the record, we're talking about 3M copies.)

The biggest problem that Nintendo faces is the fact that they're including a bathroom scale with each copy of the game. (Yes, that's a crude, yet kind of accurate analogy.) So not only do you have to make all of those 'balance boards', you also have to ship them! It's a lot harder to move a physical product like that than just some disc in a case.

Yes, I expect WiiFit to sell, and sell quite well. But it will not beat Halo 3. Now lay off the cough syrup, will ya?