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Forums - Sales - "PS3 going to finish in a distant third place" says analyst

Smashchu2 on 07 July 2009
BladeOfGod said:
gebx said:

July 6, 2009 - Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter sent out a massive 201-page report recently and it was only a matter of time before another analyst would speak his mind about the state of the console wars. The main point that Sebastian Kramer from market research firm NTH* addressed was the comeback of Sony's PlayStation 3 which currently trails behind Microsoft's Xbox 360 by eight million units.

"The PS3 needs nothing short of a miracle in order to catch up and Microsoft will do everything they can to beat Sony. The 360 is currently doing exceptionally well for a console in its fourth year and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down any time soon. All things considered, I believe that the PS3 is going to finish in a distant third place this generation."

He's got a point, recent GfK data reveiled that the 360 has been outselling even the Wii by 2:1 in the United Kingdom during the last five months. But still, couldn't Sony turn fortunes around by launching a PS3 Slim and dropping the price? "Systems like the PS1 and PS2 reached mass market acceptance long before a Slim version was introduced, a hardware revision is not going to change anything in the big picture. A potential price cut can be easily countered by Microsoft who are already overachieving with their 360 anyway."

"Blu-Ray, as Pachter suggested, isn't going to have an impact in the long run either. Standalone players are already cheaper than the PS3, so this early advantage of Sony is gone. What you should really look at are the games.", Kramer continued. "Software sells hardware and I think that's where Sony really dropped the ball this generation."

Indeed, only one game published by SCEA has passed the one million mark in sales so far, according to NPD. "Our own research has also shown that 360 exclusives sell more on average than PS3 games, even when you leave out blockbusters like Halo 3 and Gears of War. Sony's last hopes rest entirely on Gran Turismo 5, but it's already questionable how well it will be received by critics and gamers alike, because Turn 10's Forza 3 is the definitive racing game of this generation."

What about the upcoming motion controllers? Which one has more potential, Natal or Sony's wand? "Microsoft really did a great job at generating buzz for Natal, even my mom was interested and asked me when it's going to be released. Sony is facing an uphill battle and they are better off focusing on profitability rather than market share from now on."

What do you think, dear readers? Is Sony done for and the PS3 destined to finish in last? Leave your comments in the space below.

*NTH (Now that's hardcore) is a fictive market research firm that collects its data primarily from internet message boards.

 

I am glad to see that not every analyst has lost his mind and thinks like Pachter.


Bolded: Hater bullshit

Red: WTF??? Now are the kids analysts?

*Facepalm*

1)Blue Ray hasn't been moving the PS3 since day one. if it is now cheaper to buy a stand alone player, why buy a PS3 anyway. That fact tyou think he must be a hater for saying what is now accepted truth is laughable at best.

2)While I'm doubtful of the Forza 3 comment, for the most part, he's right. Every title Sony fans claim is going to save the PS3 goes up in smoke. If you said FF13, I would agree, but would note that a big reason why 7 and 10 sold was becuase of cinamatic graphics. Since Sony hasn't been able to use graphics to push the system, I doubt 13 will push consoles.

Here's what I hate. Every time I see ANY critism of Sony, all the little Sony fans come in yelling and screeming "FUF FUD!" "Haters. All of you Sony haters." But guess what? Sony fans were all ready to go and bully then other guys when Sony was on top. Now, they can't take it. This is down right pathetic. If you can't take it, then don't dish it. It is obvious that Sony fans can't.

Also, how come no one actually tries to counter these with critism of the post rather then calling him names or screeming FUD. Basically, he's right unless someone says otherwise. If no one gives a reason why he isn't right, then why should I think he isn't? No one challanges the message, just the messanger. Because of this, he'll win every argument and you'll be stuck screeming FUD. I'd like, for once, to see an actual argument rather then fluff post.

Typical fucking troll that the mods allow time and again to put up crap like this, if this person did the same thing in real life as he did here, he would be having a meat sandwich every afternoon at guantanamo bay.'

Becuase no one on this board knows what trolls really are. Rational arguments aren't trolls. Irrational opinions are. This isn;t a trolls which is why the mods allow it. Just becuase one group of people gets bent out of shape doesn't mean this board needs to be a police state (or message board in this case). He is making a ligitamite critism about the system. Not trolling.



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mmnin on 07 July 2009

I guess if you wait long enough in a generation, it makes the predicting much easier.




midwinter on 07 July 2009

I don't agree with the analyst because a lot of the qoutes were more personal opinion than actual research, but I do have to agree that PS3 is going to eat it this generation.

Sure the hard core gamers all own a PS3 ( I have one too and love it), but the casual gamer will much more likely continue to pick up XBOXs and Wiis.

Your average consumer isn't ready for the PS3. It is too complex and too high priced.



stewroids on 07 July 2009

what's so complex about the ps3? :S



FKNetwork on 07 July 2009
stewroids said:
what's so complex about the ps3? :S

Using the PS3's built in grill is a nitemare for the first few times! must be what he meant?



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errorrrr on 07 July 2009
Cypher1980 said:
stewroids said:
The PS3 has been doing really well keeping the following facts in mind:

1. It was launched at a price of $600, which is 200 or 300 more than the 360 and Wii were at the time. Even now, the cheapest PS3 you can get is $400 while the cheapest 360 is $200. The arcade console from Microsoft is one of the main reasons the 360 is ahead, it's really cheap and a parent would obviously buy the cheaper console for their kid.

2. PS3 has been out for about 3 years now and has sold 22 million units, meaning on average, about 7.5 million units per year. The 360 on the other hand has been out for 4 years and has sold 30 million units thus far, and is also selling 7.5 million on average per year. The extra year that the 360 has on the PS3 is responsible for the lead, MS had a head start. If the PS3 had released a year earlier, then it would be in the lead!

3. The 360 has a failure rate of 40 percent, while the PS3 is less than 1 percent. Many people would just send their system in for repair, but some of them just buy a new console because the defect isn't covered under the warranty or they just didn't want to wait for the entire process to take place. Not only that, but the 3 year warranty of many 360 owners that bought it when it came has expired which forced them to buy a new 360. I would say the defects in the 360 are responsible for a good amount of units sold, as much as 5-6 million and this number will only continue to grow as the warranties keep expiring.

In my opinion, the PS3 will gain momentum if they play their cards right. There is no hope of catching to the Wii, in my opinion they are the winners of this generation. But if Sony drops the price and bundles the console with GT5 or Uncharted 2, then it will sell like hot cakes. My prediction is that by the end of 2010, the PS3 and 360 will be practically even in terms of units sold and since this generation is said to last longer than previous generation (even until 2015), the PS3 has plenty of time to overtake the 360 and win beat MS once again.

I guess time will tell though...one thing is for sure though...Nintendo fucking rocks! They have a clean victory over both consoles and made a comeback from the previous generation.

I had no idea that the 360 failure rates were so high. That would mean over 12 million consoles have failed since launch.

 

Amazing. The things you learn on the internet huh !

That brings me a question... do the sales data also include consoles that are REPURCHASED because of failed X360? Do they also count replacement for concoles sent to people?? That way wouldn't the X360's data be REALLY inflated?



Slimebeast on 07 July 2009

Sebastian Kramer is my favorite analyst by far. Patcher is incompetent compared to this guy.



yo_john117 on 07 July 2009
BMaker11 said:
yo_john117 said:
WheelStriker said:
Sales, that's all people talk about. People actually think that more sales means better quality. But the fact is that's not always the case and it's sad that many people don't understand this. Or more likely chooses to ignore it.

If sales mean better quality, then I guess it's safe to say that "big bumpin" (a mediocre game) is the xbox 360's best exclusive and is one of the games that defines the xbox brand as it has high sales.



WTF is "big bumpin"?

And yes sales are the most importent thing at the end of the day, and yes they declare how much quality a product has.  Sure there are always the exception but most of the time sales=quality because thats what most people want...

Carnival Games and Mario and Sonic

 

Here let me bold the part that you obviously did not read.



SaviorX on 07 July 2009

The 360>PS3 gap is at 8.75 million now. Geez.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Slimebeast on 07 July 2009
SaviorX said:
The 360>PS3 gap is at 8.75 million now. Geez.


What are you smoking? The gap has been hovering at around 8.0 million for several months now.