Lingyis said:
it makes sense. like i've been saying for about a month now. basically, sony's backed into a corner.
what i don't get is why so many sony fanboys (none in this thread), a month ago, actually thought a $399 40Gb PS3 would be bad. that was the one time i realized that fanboys ignore reason and logic, for real.
should be the first real contribution of Kaz. of course, it also makes it likely that kaz won't last more than a couple years; you can bet in his analysis and presentation to sony manageent that he was much more bullish with the sales potential of the PS3 than it really would be even with a $399 ps3, and there is no way it will reach the sales he projected. in other words, his division will continue to lose tons of money, if not even more now, and he'll be responsible for the financial hemmorrhage.
or maybe ps3 manufacturing prices really have come down $200 in the past year; even then they'll still be losing $200 on a $400 machine. sayanora Kaz, we hardly knew ya. oh, did i say it was a gamble? the downside is truly scary this time around. if it only increases sales to a 40,000/wk baseline, like with the $499 60Gb ps3, i'll have real concerns for SCE--they could be running out of ammunition and faith from upper management.
back to ps3 sales. will it have an impact? certainly not enough to pass 360 in the US; the 360, by now, is firmly established as the US gaming machine, and a $399 ps3 isn't gonna change that. and i think a $399 40Gb ps3 is exactly a 40,000 baseline US sales gaming machine with its current library of games.
this generation is shaping up EXACTLY the way nintendo has envisioned. Sony and Microsoft gets drawn out in a war of attrition, and while 6 months ago i thought both makers would survive to 8th gen, the likelihood one of them doesn't make it next gen has increased, in my mind.
now we'll find out how Microsoft pushes back. this battle between ps3 and 360 is gonna be so darn fascinating. neither side stands to win. Yep, there would have been no way nintendo could survive a fight between these 2 titans. Even if the Wii isn't selling as well as it is, say it's only selling the level of ps3 right now, it's still the right direction for Nintendo. |
I saw this whole scenario coming years ago. Every fan comment saying "Nintendo's in a whole 'nother market than the other game systems", how Nintendo said they "weren't competing". I just sat back in shock at how people didn't even realize the weight of those words.
Of COURSE Nintendo is competing with Sony and Microsoft and of COURSE Nintendo's in the SAME market! There's a subtlety in language that went over the heads of most people watching this marketplace race. If they all share the same gamemakers where one gamemaker's decision affects the others they are naturally in the same market. By saying they weren't competing doesn't mean they are not in this fight, it's that their perspective on the fight is different than the others who are locked into this powermad pricedrop war. They're not fighting the same and their mind isn't focused on the fight. They are above the fight and that is their plan of attack. They've transcended the fight. The whole 'nother market is the market the others can't reach by the way their systems and identity are setup. Nintendo will take a portion of the market these two are fighting over as WELL as this wholly exclusive audience off-limits to the competition. Damn right, these guys are playing RIGHT into Nintendo's hands.
And about price drops...I don't know how this happens every generation but it looks like people are so quick to forget what happened in the generation before the current one. Price drops didn't save the Gamecube. Price drops without momentum won't make a lasting difference. PS3 is always one step behind because of the existence of the 360 with its headstart and role-usurpation of Sony's machine. With Halo 3 and Bioshock behind them the pressure has just been applied that much stronger to Sony.
In game-capital Japan neither of them matter as Nintendo has locked up that region for all intents and purposes winning the all-important Japanese developer support. In USA/Canada/Mexico Microsoft is strongest with Nintendo matching them and Sony is the odd man out. In Europe, Nintendo has gained considerable ground and Microsoft is building its influence in that complex market. Sony may have a upper hand in some regions of that market but even there the competition is comparable. In Australia/New Zealand same story with Microsoft with a little more oomph than in Europe. In all markets whatever's not run by the PC empire you see these scenarios.
Dropping price this quickly back to back is a horrible but necessary businessmove seeing how the PS3 was setup. But it reeks of desperation and may not pay off in the dividends they are hoping it will. If it had more big name games backing it up then it could do a little something but even this is not applicable right now. Too much stuff is getting pushed back. If this 2nd price drop fails to stimulate some sales strength, I hate to say it but you can hang it up for the PS3 this gen. Wii's about to shock the world within the next few months and 360 will grow its building power even further capturing developers because of their performance in certain markets.
Remember, Gamecube is $99 right now and it STILL can't move units here, in Japan, or anywhere else. It's became cheaper than all of the competition quickly and stayed that way but it didn't make a difference. PS2 is the other surviving 6th gen console but even at its USA $129 it still is making a difference on the hardware and software sales charts deep in the middle of the 7th gen here, in Japan, and everywhere else.
A lesson to be learned: Price drops aren't always necessarily saviors. Be careful.
PS3 is stranded on the corner of Rock Boulevard and Hard Place Drive. Somebody better pick up this thumbs-up hitchhiker before it succumbs into the dark of night.
John Lucas
