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Forums - Sales Discussion - More people in US with a HD DVD player than Blu-ray

HappySqurriel said:

It wouldn't surprise me if this was true ...

HD-DVD was the favoured format for stand alone players because the player was dramatically less expensive, the movies were less expensive, and the movies lacked "Features" (like unskipable ads) that annoyed potential buyers. Blu-Ray won becase the adpotion rate of a new videogame system is much faster than a new movie format, and (even though gamers buy less movies than movie collectors) the vast number of gamers who bought a couple of movies to play in their PS3 pushed Blu-Ray over the top.

The side effect of HD-DVD losing was that the player prices were slashed (often below the cost of a upscaling DVD player) and movie prices were slashed (often below the DVD version) resulting in HDDVD being a great bargain if you were willing to acept that you'd have to replace your movies in a couple of years (or live without them); and in some cases movie producers have offered trade-ins for Blu-Ray versions of the movie, and some people have picked up movies like Batman Begins or Transformers for $2 on HD-DVD and converted them to Blu-Ray for $5 a piece.

 

Ultimately, the adoption of Blu-Ray is following the same trend that the adoption of most things HD has gone ...

People assumed it would be a smashing success out of the gate, and then they assume that it is only 12 months away from the mainstream desperately wanting it, but most people were satisfied enough with what they had and will wait intil they're "Forced" to upgrade or until there is no benefit for sticking with the technology they have.

Dual format releases always MSRP'd for the same price.  The difference in manufacturing costs were neglible to the consumer (~$1 per disc), and due to economies of scale, BD-Rom manufacturing costs were constantly falling, primarily due to the mass production of ps3 games (MGS4 alone outsold all HD movies sold on either format combined prior to its release).

Also, while the ps3 gave Blu-Ray a nice advantage, Blu-Ray's primary advantage came from its support throughout the industry.  Ultimately, it was Toshiba vs Sony, Matsushita, Samsung, and Pioneer, and Universal vs. Sony Pictures, Disney, Lionsgate, and Fox, with LG, Warner, and Paramount being dual-format. It was basically Toshiba against the world, and they couldn't win.  They did their best to hold off the BDA by paying Paramount to go HD DVD exclusive in late 2007, but the BDA bit back by paying off Warner in early 2008.

And people knew that HD DVD was unlikley to win, which is why Blu-Ray standalone players were outselling their HD DVD counterparts numerous times throughout 2007.  I can't find any articles stating that Blu-Ray players were leading over the 2007 holiday season (though they were, iirc), but I do have this article which shows that Blu-Ray standalone players were outpacing HD DVD standalone players in both August and September of 2007:

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/11427.cfm



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some americans still use hd dvd. that doesnt mean it still has a chance




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

This just doesn't even make the least bit of sense. I'm beginning to believe these studies less and less...when did they survey me? Or any of my family? Or any of my friends?

I feel a headache coming on...



Phrancheyez said:
This just doesn't even make the least bit of sense. I'm beginning to believe these studies less and less...when did they survey me? Or any of my family? Or any of my friends?

I feel a headache coming on...

First off, to people like you who are just complaining about the survey, try reading the methodology. Just like this website, this survey did not ask every single person in the US what they bought this week.

After reading the methodology and looking at some facts posted by the users of this website, it seems that all the %s are on the high side.




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I highly doubt that



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See what I mean survey's are no indication of what reality is..



 

mM

Among other nonsense, their survey results say that 23% of XBOX 360 owners also have the HD DVD add-on. Whatever. Microsoft had sold 300,000 units worldwide when the add-on was discontinued.

Their results are a combination of poor sampling and ambiguity in their questions. How should you answer if you own a PS3? Do you say "yes" to owning a Blu-Ray player or "no" because that's supposed to mean standalone players? Their questioning method doesn't explain it. Does the average consumer even know there were (note past tense) multiple formats? If someone owns an upconverting DVD player do they think that's considered HD DVD because it's a player that plays movies in (supposedly) high definition? If they own a Blu-Ray player do they think they're supposed to answer yes to the same question because they have a player that plays movies in high definition?

You have to ask these questions because it's the only way you'd come up with their ridiculous results.

The survey was done in April (more than a year after HD DVD threw in the towel) and yet implies that HD DVD adoption almost doubled during that period. Even with the sell-off last year, these numbers are just ludicrous (and Harris Interactive's conclusions do not attribute the supposed HD DVD growth to a sell-off at all).  And did they not think to verify their findings against actual sales data? If they looked at home video sales in the month of their survey they would have seen that for the top 20 titles, 12% of units were Blu-Ray (up from 6% a year prior indicating a doubling of market share yoy) and 0% were HD DVD.

Finally at the very end of their report they have a disclaimer saying that they don't provide an error margin because it's impossible to determine one based on their surveying method. Convenient.

This survey was obviously meant to shake consumer confidence in Blu-Ray. It even calls Blu-Ray the "unofficial" winner of the HD disc format war. My question: Who commissioned the survey?



ViolentPhlegm said:

Among other nonsense, their survey results say that 23% of XBOX 360 owners also have the HD DVD add-on. Whatever. Microsoft had sold 300,000 units worldwide when the add-on was discontinued.

Their results are a combination of poor sampling and ambiguity in their questions. How should you answer if you own a PS3? Do you say "yes" to owning a Blu-Ray player or "no" because that's supposed to mean standalone players? Their questioning method doesn't explain it. Does the average consumer even know there were (note past tense) multiple formats? If someone owns an upconverting DVD player do they think that's considered HD DVD because it's a player that plays movies in (supposedly) high definition? If they own a Blu-Ray player do they think they're supposed to answer yes to the same question because they have a player that plays movies in high definition?

You have to ask these questions because it's the only way you'd come up with their ridiculous results.

The survey was done in April (more than a year after HD DVD threw in the towel) and yet implies that HD DVD adoption almost doubled during that period. Even with the sell-off last year, these numbers are just ludicrous (and Harris Interactive's conclusions do not attribute the supposed HD DVD growth to a sell-off at all).  And did they not think to verify their findings against actual sales data? If they looked at home video sales in the month of their survey they would have seen that for the top 20 titles, 12% of units were Blu-Ray (up from 6% a year prior indicating a doubling of market share yoy) and 0% were HD DVD.

Finally at the very end of their report they have a disclaimer saying that they don't provide an error margin because it's impossible to determine one based on their surveying method. Convenient.

This survey was obviously meant to shake consumer confidence in Blu-Ray. It even calls Blu-Ray the "unofficial" winner of the HD disc format war. My question: Who commissioned the survey?


Actually, they said 3% did, but what's 20% amongst friends?



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I agree that the results are skewed, but I think everyone doing math using "300+ million Americans" is doing it wrong. These kinds of figures wouldn't count individuals; they'd count households. (If a man buys a Blu-ray player for his home, his wife is considered a Blu-ray owner as well.) The number of households in the US was around 111 million is 2007. If you do the math again using 111 million instead of 300+ million, the numbers don't look so bad. Still off, but not by orders of magnitude.



Wyku said:
ViolentPhlegm said:

Among other nonsense, their survey results say that 23% of XBOX 360 owners also have the HD DVD add-on. Whatever. Microsoft had sold 300,000 units worldwide when the add-on was discontinued.

Actually, they said 3% did, but what's 20% amongst friends?

Actually, I'm guessing he did the math. 3% of the US population is 20% of the X360 population within the US. However, I haven't run the numbers.




If you drop a PS3 right on top of a Wii, it would definitely defeat it. Not so sure about the Xbox360. - mancandy
In the past we played games. In the future we watch games. - Forest-Spirit
11/03/09 Desposit: Mod Bribery (RolStoppable)  vg$ 500.00
06/03/09 Purchase: Moderator Privilege  vg$ -50,000.00

Nordlead Jr. Photo/Video Gallery!!! (Video Added 4/19/10)