In 2009, Wii Sports Resort will be out for 3 months, and then comes the holiday season (Nov/Dec).

Wii Fit sold as follows for the first three months:

Japan: 1.5m (seems about right for WSR)
NA: 1.8m (supply constrained, WSR should do at least twice as much or 3.6m)
Others: 2 million (supply constrained though to a smaller extent, WSR should do at least 3m)

So I think WSR can sell at least 8.1 million in the first three months (maybe 4 million in the first month, then 2 million per month).

Then comes the holiday season. In November it should sell 1.5-2 times as much as October, so 3-4 million. In December it should sell at least the same amount, let's be conservative and say it sells equally due to supply constraints. So we have 6-8 million more in the holiday season.

In total 14-16 million copies of Wii Sports Resort sold this year.

Then come the non-bundled WM+ accessories. The average Wii owner has 2.2 remotes according to NPD (or was it Nintendo?). Let's say just 30% of the Wii Sports Resort buyers get additional WM+ units for their other remotes. That gives 5-6 million more standalone units, for a total of 19-22 million WM+ units.

As I think I was conservative on the standalone units and December sales, and considering Red Steel 2 and Grand Slam Tennis will sell additional bundled WM+ units, I'm betting on at least 20 million WM+ sold in 2009.

Will Nintendo produce enough WM+ to satisfy this demand? Or am I just insane?

PS: This would also mean that around 20-25% of the Wii install base will be WM+ ready by the end of the year.

Are they including M+ with the standard Wii package? Considering their massive profit margins I hope they do.

Also is WSR going to be bundled or unbundled?

no your not insane

WSR is the sequel to the best selling game (**bundled) of all time......so its possible

SMB2 sold over 20 million right??

@Squilliam: I don't think they will bundle WM+ or WSR this year. That's what I'm assuming...

I think that's a little too ambitious to assume WSR will sell on par with Wii Fit. I'm not saying it won't sell well, but I think saying it'll outsell it by that much is wishful thinking. You might be right, tho.

The only way I see WM+ selling that much is if they bundle it like Squil suggests.

It will sell a lot, but not that much so quickly.

Maybe it should be bundled with Wii Play, albeit at a higher price.

I think it will be advertised on par with Wii Fit, and it will appeal to the whole Wii userbase. People will see something with Wii Sports in the name and they'll just buy it even if they don't know what WM+ is.

That's how I see Wii Sports Resort.

You may be right.  I don't think it's any kind of a secret that I don't like the Wii a lot, but Wii Sports was very fun.  As such, WSR will be the first game I've bought for the Wii in about 2 years, so that's saying a lot.

I'm just not sure how well it will sell.  TBH, I think it'll have a lot to do with the price tag and if they expect to sell it at full retail.  If they do, I don't see it doing near the sales you're hinting at.  At a budget price, I think it could sell as good as or better than you think, depending on where that budget price is set at.  It's also hard to judge because we don't really know how well Wii Sports would sell if it wasn't bundled either.

I hope it does sell good because if it's anything like Wii Sports, it'll be a blast.  And I'd assume (hope, I haven't really read up on it) it'll be online multiplayer, which will warrant me spending the money on it even more.  I'm still skeptical about sales, however I would never say it's impossible; that's something the Wii has taught me to never say regarding Nintendo.

I don't know if WSR will move the numbers we talk of it doing. The problem is, it doesnt have that brand new experience that caused everyone to jump to wii fit.

The people who continue to play wii sports aren't sitting there like "man, I wish this game had a little stronger controls!"

I think WM+ will do well, especially with all the bundles out there for it. However, I don't think it will jump so quickly.

I think 20 million is a little outlandish, but if they can hit anywhere close to 10 million by the end of the year it would be a smashing success.