It won't, but only because it doesn't have to. Consumers already chose Nintendo, and chances are pretty good they're not going to change their mind.

Shhh. Nintendo isn't allowed to drop the Wii's price to stay competitive. It must stay $250 until both MS and Sony release a $200 console with motion. Then it may drop the price... if it has first been soundly beaten.

They needn't do anything.

Seriously, even if Natal comes out, that's a year and a half from now for Nintendo to cruise ahead. When it comes out, IF it comes out, that puts it right at the end of the 360's life, as we'll probably be seeing the 720, or whatever they call it, by then.

What 3rd parties are going to jump into developing new games, for yet another new interface that looks very complicated to learn, with no guarantee that Microsoft will even be able to sell more than a couple of million of these? Then who buys what games, out of those couple of million? Could any title really sell well enough to justify jumping into that boat?

The argument against the wii that xbox fans always use is that the non-hardcore "don't buy" many games. If that were to be held against the xbox with it's much higher production costs for games, is that really some tantalizing field that publishers want to flock to?

People really aren't looking at this realistically, at all. It's cool tech, but it's just tech. Sort of like how the PS3 has cool tech, but it doesn't translate to being the be all end of all of sales. Nobody really cares.

Please at least wait until a month before Natal is released. There is not enough info. to really even speculate. There is no cost released for it and no information on games. Are there was is a demo. Nobody know enough about it to warrant any intelligent conversion. Conversations on what games it could work with and different activities you can do with it are fine, but there is no reason to speculate on market penetration and the effect it will have on the industry. It's like saying a apple is gonna taste bad before the apple tree is planted. You have no clue.

probably the one way they can react this year is to release follow ups to 3 of their most successful games of all time and bundle a new coloured wii with monster hunter

The only way to combat moneyhatting is to do the same...but Nintendo rarely do (certainly not in regards to western content).

Nothing Nintendo can do to stop the gaming press bias..except release a Wii HD. The fact that so few websites have done any major coverage of Wii Sports Resort speaks volumes (especially considering it will be the biggest selling game this year).

As far as Natal goes..well that will only be a major issue in around 18 months time in holiday 2010...

Who knows what Nintendo may be working on?

The Wii was released around 12 months after its controller was first shown,
MotionPlus will be released 12 months after it was first shown,
The balance board was released around 5 months after it was first shown (in Japan anyway).

Who's to say Nintendo won't have their own bit of crazy new tech?
18 months is a long time in the world of videogames

This is a site where people come to discuss, and speculate about, sales numbers. People come here to discuss, and speculate about, sales numbers.

I have my reasons for believing the market penetration on Natal, and the Wand, will be low. Not terrible, but low by contrast to the starry, wide eyed death-of-the-wii predictions that some now see as the future.

They'll counter by doing what they normally do.

I understand that but why the 50 threads about it?  3 or 4 threads about it would be suffecient.  State you "OPINION" and have a discussion.  But there are so many people claiming each will bomb without knowing anything about what will be released with each.  Speculation is fun but there is no need for so many threads w/o more information.  The threads should be:

Discussion:  Natal

Discussion:  The Wand

Discussion:  Natal and The Wand reception.

Discussion:  Tech behind Natal and The Wand

I'm waiting for the threads asking "How will Apple counter the Zune?" and "How will Microsoft counter Linux?" because (much like Sony "countering" the performance advantage the XBox had over the PS2) there is no need to counter a product that doesn't threaten your marketshare or profitability.