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Forums - Nintendo - How will Wii counter Natal, 360+, MS Moneyhatting Ways and Press Bias?

txrattlesnake said:
Showertea said:
When was XBox+ announced? Or are you just pulling things out of your... moneyhat?

About the press, remember that before the Wii and PS3 was released, the press everywhere was saying "Wii's going to kill Nintendo and sell at most 15 million, PS3's gonna kill the 360 and sell 200 million at least." The press doesn't mean anything. People are gonna buy the games that are more fun, not the games that the games media adores.


http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=75469

 

The way I'm reading th opening post is that 360+ will be out in 2010 probably with Natal as its primary control scheme and then the next nextbox will be out in 2013 or 2014.

But that's all presumption. They never said they're doing any of that.

 

Besides, if they're going to do a weird 'relaunch' of the 360 as the 360+ with natal, they're going to need a ton of support for Natal compatible games. 3rd Parties are going to have a hard time putting out playable games on the Natal in eighteen months, as it's a dramatically different control scheme that's going to take time to get right. Remember how astoundingly terrible all the non-Nintendo launch Wii games were? It's gonna be worse than that.



Wii has more 20 million sellers than PS3 has 5 million sellers.

Acolyte of Disruption

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txrattlesnake said:
Sardauk said:
Showertea said:
When was XBox+ announced? Or are you just pulling things out of your... moneyhat?

About the press, remember that before the Wii and PS3 was released, the press everywhere was saying "Wii's going to kill Nintendo and sell at most 15 million, PS3's gonna kill the 360 and sell 200 million at least." The press doesn't mean anything. People are gonna buy the games that are more fun, not the games that the games media adores.

This.

 

     Actually, that's not the way it was.  If you opened up any newspaper prior to the release of Wii and PS3 (especially after the PS3's $599.99 price point was announced), there were many articles saying the PS3 was doomed to be the next Dreamcast and that Wii was really set to take off.

This is what was expected.

 

Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008) Didn't even list Wii
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million



The rEVOLution is not being televised

who knows if nintendo will even need to counter.

1. how much will natal cost?

2. how well will it actually work? the demo showed off some errors already.

3. when will it release? soon enough to take advantage of the hype? if not soon will nintendo already have rival techs in place?

4. what kind of launch games will it have?

5. how big a gap will the install base be by that time?



"Sony and Microsoft recommend gamers buy a Nintendo Wii
"Date: May 17th, 2006
"Blogger: Jason Hiner
"Category: Microsoft, Sony
"0 comment(s) Email Save Print Digg This Recommend 0

"Wow, talk about buzz and hype … the forthcoming Nintendo Wii console came away from last week’s E3 gaming summit with far more buzz than either of its two nextgen competitors, the Sony PS3 or Microsoft’s Xbox 360. The Wii’s motion-sensing controller really wowed the crowd with demos of Nintendo execs swinging the controller like a racquet in a tennis game that is part of the “Wii Sports” title for the new Nintendo console. The Wii controller looks like it’s a lot of fun and incredibly easy to use. Since the Nintendo Wii will cost far less (probably $250 or under) than it’s competitors (which are in the $400 to $600 range), it will also be a much easier sell.

"Beyond price, the biggest difference is that the Wii is focused on revolutionizing the gaming experience and opening up video games to even more players, while Sony and Microsoft have been busing trying to turn their consoles into multimedia powerhouses that can stream music, play video clips, download movies, play HD discs, etc. So, as it turns out, Sony and Microsoft may have taken their eye off the ball, and Nintendo is coming in and eating their lunch. Sorry for the mixed metaphor, but you get the point.

"As a testimony to the fact that the Wii may have the best gaming experience of the three nextgen consoles, both Microsoft and Sony execs reacted to the Wii’s E3 buzz by recommending that gamers buy the Wii – in addition to their respective consoles. Microsoft VP Pete Moore threw out the first volley by stating, “People are going to buy two [consoles]. They’re going to buy an Xbox and they’re going to buy a Wii … for the price of one PS3.”

"Sony exec Phil Harrison shot back, “I think Peter Moore is exactly right. I think Nintendo will be the second system consumers purchase after PlayStation 3… Nintendo has a great history of innovation and has always done great things for gaming and long may they do so. But as it relates to our strategy they are very much in a different market.”

"Harrison is pointing to the fact that the gaming market is essentially splitting into two main segments:
1.) Families
2.) Hard core adult gamers

"Of course, plenty of families have bought Playstations and Xboxes in the past but with their price tags skyrocketing in the next generation of consoles, Sony and Microsoft might simply be giving a lot of the family market over to Nintendo. Plus, Nintendo is trying to expand the reach of the family market by making a console that is so intuitive and easy to use that moms and dads and grandmas and grandpas can join in the action.

"And while it’s true that hard core adult gamers often have two consoles, Microsoft and Sony are expecting that most of them probably won’t buy both an Xbox 360 and a PS3 because of the hefty price tags. They’ve essentially decided to compete with each other on the high end and assume that the second console for most hard core gamers will be the Wii. Meanwhile, they are fighting competition for these hard core gamers from gaming PCs, which are getting much cheaper and much easier to hook up to TVs.

"I’m starting to wonder if Nintendo is going to quietly swoop in and surprisingly sell more nextgen consoles than either of its two big competitors. I know that my family currently owns an original Xbox and a Nintendo GameCube and my son and I play the GameCube a lot more than the Xbox because it’s simply more fun – mostly because of the Mario games. If we buy any of the three nextgen consoles, it will be the Wii. "

http://blogs.techrepublic.com.com/hiner/?m=200605



^That was M$ and Sony's PR dealing with the disruption that was about to take place.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

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Wyku said:
Until it actually comes out and has some successful software behind it, Nintendo will continue on their merry way selling millions of consoles and getting Wii Motion+ into the hands of millions. That will continue well after Natal is released as well. I don't think they need to do anything to "counter" though.

I agree completely. 



 

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Just continue doing what they been doing with a 50 mill + fanbase and growing,when that launches in a year it will be niche amount of people who buy it since it's an add on and even if 360 starts packing it in it's the same deal.

Much smaller consumer base. Plus developers won't really get the hang of it for at least a year or more much like Wii/DS or any new hardware.



@OP
As others have said Nintendo doesn't have to do anything. While I understand your take on the situation. It's from an old perspective. The views you are using only work to an enthusiast or "core" gamer. That's not how reality works though. The average consumer is happy with the product they have when it meets their valued needs. Heres the difference why Nintendo doesn't have to do anything to specifically counter MS or Sony.

MS is copying the Nintendo strategy by doing the same type of actions, but do they truly understand the strategy. Is MS aiming to meet the needs the customer or are they trying to meet the needs of a technology. MS has pretty much from near it's existence is more about fufilling technology rather than the consumer values. Because of this MS will always be a trailing edge unless it "get's lucky".

Does Nintendo need to do anything. No. Nintendo will aim to meet the needs/values of the broad consumer. While MS will try to play technical cathup(or surpass). But history has shown a very common ground. A successful product isn't a better product. A successful product meets the needs/values of the consumer first. With that in mind it won't matter if Natal proves to be a better tech. Since most of the broad consumer is currently displaying that it's happy with the Wiiremote.

Can MS take the broad consumer lead. Only if figures/lucks out on something that fills the consumer needs. Anyone notice how Zune was successful. Anyone notice why Internet Explorer is sucessful. iPod beat out Zune because it was first to fill the needs. IE is on an OS first to fill the needs. So why should the average consumer download a different browser when they allready have one? Just ask on this site which is the most popularly used browser. It will be IE. If most people know that FF is better, why don't they switch. Because they are comfortable with IE and it works for what they need. So are you seeing the patter here?
Does MS need to counter FF, Opera, Chrome?

The core view is to value the technology. Because there values always want the latest and greatest. Since you are posting this it is clear that you see the "superior"(if it is) design of Natal. As such your view tells you that the superior tech will win. If you consider what I wrote and evidence of real market consumer behavior. Have you changed your mind? or do you insist that better tech wins?



Squilliam: On Vgcharts its a commonly accepted practice to twist the bounds of plausibility in order to support your argument or agenda so I think its pretty cool that this gives me the precedent to say whatever I damn well please.

Nintendo doesn't really care about the media bias. Denise Kaigler said so recently



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

The OP appears to be citing the speculation of other forum members as verified fact.

Microsoft has a potentially great technology. What it does not have right now is a finished product or a price point or any "must have" software.

And if this costs too much, moneyhatting won't be an option because there are stockholders to answer to who do not appreciate the losses being taken (historic) by the game division.

Thus while Microsoft lays people off, Nintendo is scoffed at saying it will have a tough time but will marginally exceed its record record profits again.

So which company has to adjust?

Mike from Morgantown



      


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