its only a matter of time before it does. This just proves how well Wii Fit sells compared to how badly ps3 sells.

It's amazing that it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Incredible.

I decided to put some stats in. Yay! Stats

Sold in 2008 (21 weeks)

Wii - 6881K

Wii Fit - 5944K

X360 - 3639K

Ps3 - 3300K

Wii Play - 2978K

MKWii - 2849K

Average:

Wii Fit outsells 125K each week. If this remains, it will take 23 weeks to outsell the Ps3. That's sometime in November (just before the holidays start)

Note: Wii Play > MKWii here, as last year.

But that's for the entire year. If you short it down a bit, it's like this.

May + June (8 weeks)

Wii - 1905K

Wii Fit - 1760K

X360 - 985K

Ps3 - 942K

MKWii - 879K

Wii Play - 701K

Average:

Wii Fit outsells Ps3 by 102K/week. If this remains, it would mean it would take 28 weeks to outsell the Ps3. That's by the start of December.

Note:

Mario Kart Wii suddenly outsells Wii Play by a signifficant number. I'm not sure why.

While the gap between Wii Fit and Ps3 (weekly sales) might appear to be lowering, that is because of the overall drop in the industry.  For the year, Wii Fit has sold 80% more than the Ps3, while in May + April it has sold 87% more.

But of course, saying "if it keeps that up for x weeks" doesn't work very precisely. So, I have an alternative (which is rather shabby, to be frank) method.

I used to have a prediction that said (I believe)

Wii Fit at end of 2008 = 13.55M

Wii Fit average weekly for first 6 months: 250K/week. Current average (5 weeks left): 283K/week. Total would now be 20.5M

Wii Fit average for the next 3 months: 200K/week.  (Average in April + May is 220K) Total would now be 23.1M

Then it would sell 4000K during the christmas quarter, putting the total to 27.1M

This is a pretty old estimate (made at the start of the year) but it seems to be surprisingly spot on (my MKWii one is not though :(

That would mean the Ps3 needs to sell 4.7M to tie it by the end of the year. Last year it sold 6.66M in this period. But, Ps3 (along with the industry) is showing severe dropoffs, so around 5.0M might not be unlikely.

Personally, I believe they should get even in December 2009. Even if Ps3 remains ahead, Wii Fit should manage to outsell it for the first half of the next year. Eventually, though, the Ps3 should re-pass Wii Fit.

PS: I'm not certain what effect Wii Fit + would have (I'm not up-to-date on the E3 news at the moment), so that may flaw this up.

Thanks Pineapple for the breakdown.

hmm I've been seeing this EA actove sports for wii commercial often lately..

Well, depends on the nature of Wii Fit+. If it were simply an expansion pack, it won't snag sales from the original Wii Fit.

EA Active Sports uses the BB.

As expected from O... I mean, Pineapple.

You say that the Wii Fit dropoffs are the result of the industry slowing down. I think that is partly the case, but I would also guess that Wii Fit is slowing down on its own. Back in the days of release, only the limited supply held the sales below 200k a week.

I buy most of your predictions, but I still think that by the end of the year Wii Fit will sell at best on par with the PS3. (GAH! I just had a flashback from when I said exactly the same before the america release...)

Killergram, while you are right that it is selling slower than earlier in the year, it is selling higher than it was before the holiday/supply increase.

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Wii+Fit+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100&weekly=1

Never

I expect MINIMUM LTD sales for the PS3 of 60 million

Wii Fit won't even come close to 40 million