I decided to put some stats in. Yay! Stats
Sold in 2008 (21 weeks)
Wii - 6881K
Wii Fit - 5944K
X360 - 3639K
Ps3 - 3300K
Wii Play - 2978K
MKWii - 2849K
Average:
Wii Fit outsells 125K each week. If this remains, it will take 23 weeks to outsell the Ps3. That's sometime in November (just before the holidays start)
Note: Wii Play > MKWii here, as last year.
But that's for the entire year. If you short it down a bit, it's like this.
May + June (8 weeks)
Wii - 1905K
Wii Fit - 1760K
X360 - 985K
Ps3 - 942K
MKWii - 879K
Wii Play - 701K
Average:
Wii Fit outsells Ps3 by 102K/week. If this remains, it would mean it would take 28 weeks to outsell the Ps3. That's by the start of December.
Note:
Mario Kart Wii suddenly outsells Wii Play by a signifficant number. I'm not sure why.
While the gap between Wii Fit and Ps3 (weekly sales) might appear to be lowering, that is because of the overall drop in the industry. For the year, Wii Fit has sold 80% more than the Ps3, while in May + April it has sold 87% more.
But of course, saying "if it keeps that up for x weeks" doesn't work very precisely. So, I have an alternative (which is rather shabby, to be frank) method.
I used to have a prediction that said (I believe)
Wii Fit at end of 2008 = 13.55M
Wii Fit average weekly for first 6 months: 250K/week. Current average (5 weeks left): 283K/week. Total would now be 20.5M
Wii Fit average for the next 3 months: 200K/week. (Average in April + May is 220K) Total would now be 23.1M
Then it would sell 4000K during the christmas quarter, putting the total to 27.1M
This is a pretty old estimate (made at the start of the year) but it seems to be surprisingly spot on (my MKWii one is not though :(
That would mean the Ps3 needs to sell 4.7M to tie it by the end of the year. Last year it sold 6.66M in this period. But, Ps3 (along with the industry) is showing severe dropoffs, so around 5.0M might not be unlikely.
Personally, I believe they should get even in December 2009. Even if Ps3 remains ahead, Wii Fit should manage to outsell it for the first half of the next year. Eventually, though, the Ps3 should re-pass Wii Fit.
PS: I'm not certain what effect Wii Fit + would have (I'm not up-to-date on the E3 news at the moment), so that may flaw this up.
