I'm basing this on an old interview about the 3DV camera before MS bought 3DV, look here

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=16637

''And, speaking of costs, you talked about why you're not nailing down the cost of a potential production version yet. You think it will be in a comfortable range for mainstream applications. Could you talk about where you see that right now?

TB: Well, first of all, the camera will not be released rendered as a 3DV camera, so we will have a partner working with us -- obviously, a "bigger partner"(((refering to MS))) could be a publisher bundling a game with this, it could be one of the first parties, it could be a hardware player of any other sort.

I guess, any pricing decision will be made together. But what I can say in terms of the cost is, as you said, it will be comfortably in the zone that is relevant for peripherals in the gaming arena, and it will be definitely possible to sell it as a bundle for the kind-of $69.99 price point that one can feel comfortable about. Or, sell it together with any webcam that is on the shelves in Best Buy or Fry's. Similar price-point.''

There you have it, theres no way this is going to be priced at $200, especially not in 2010 (this interview is 2008)

3DV and Natal are unrelated
http://www.vg247.com/2009/06/03/project-natal-and-3dv-unrelated-says-ms/

Yeah but Natal can't possibly cost that much more to produce, just using common sense. It might even be cheaper in 2010.

Didn't M$ purchase 3DV? Or is that still speculation?

Also, that is good news that this camera can be released at such a price, means Natal will be a little bit more. Which means, by next year, it actually could be $69 due to reductions in manufacturing.

I think the NATAL will probably end up selling for around $100 (the natal is probably a little more advanced and includes a microphone), and probably come with Milo and Kate (molyneux's virtual boy game).

Im predicting that at next years E3 we'll probably see the Xbox Arcade model drop down to $150 and the pro down to $199, and maybe do an elite model bundled with the NATAL for $300. Thats what I'd do if I were M$ and wanted to compete with both Ninty and Sony

i still think Natal will be monstrously priced. 69.99 is how much some fancy keyboards cost- a motion sensing piece of equipment like that just seems to be too cheap at 70 dollars

oh, and i should mention that I feel like they'll also be unveiling the slim line 360.

Anyone else feel like microsoft is gonna make a huge push to rebrand the xbox next year? new hardware/peripherals/gaming modes

either way, should be interesting to watch.

Keyboards have huge profit margins as well.  M$ might want to have huge profit margins on this thing, but I doubt it.  They probably want to break even and have it help push more consoles and more software.  Do you know what exactly the components of the Natal are?  Without that knowledge it is hard to even speculate.  All we have to go on is someone saying their motion sensing camera could release to retail at $69.

Id say it will cost about $100 at retail.

Lets see, it has a video processor to compress the video stream (otherwise it wouldn't work in real time with USB) a high(ish) quality array microphone, a camera, a depth finder and years of software development. It would cost at minimum probably closer to $100 than $50 to make. So adding ~25% for retail margins would have us at a device which breaking even on the marginal costs of the unit itself (not the software/development costs) would cost at least $100 at retail.

Personally im expecting it to cost somewhere between $125-175 which isn't too far away from their highest priced accessory, the 120GB HDD.