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I think the NATAL will probably end up selling for around $100 (the natal is probably a little more advanced and includes a microphone), and probably come with Milo and Kate (molyneux's virtual boy game).

Im predicting that at next years E3 we'll probably see the Xbox Arcade model drop down to $150 and the pro down to $199, and maybe do an elite model bundled with the NATAL for $300. Thats what I'd do if I were M$ and wanted to compete with both Ninty and Sony