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Forums - Sales - A look at Malstrom's predictions. Do you think they will come true?

theRepublic on 02 June 2009

We know Pikmin 3 is going to be shown at E3. This is Miyamoto’s doing. I already know Pikmin 3 will not drive Wii growth because Pikmin 1 and 2 didn’t do much of a job of driving Gamecube growth. Instead of making a sequel to a Gamecube game, why not look more at the SNES and NES? Why not take inspiration from NSMB’s massive sales. If Nintendo puts out a 2d Mario for the Wii, I will guarantee you Wii growth.

Source

At the end of a recent article, quoted above, Malstrom made the prediction that a 2D Mario for the Wii will be a huge seller, and drive Wii growth.  Based on statments he made earlier in the article, Malstrom seems to think that a game like this would outsell Super Mario Galaxy by a large margin.  We now have that game in the recently announced New Super Mario Bros Wii.

Do you think that New Super Mario Bros Wii will outsell Super Mario Galaxy?  What about Super Mario Galaxy 2?



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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 June 2009

probably, especially if I can play online



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Alterego-X on 02 June 2009

Super Mario Galaxy, very likely.

SMG 2, possible, it is mostly depending on the relevance of the bigger install base.

 

And likely NSMB will have the longer legs, SMG being more blockbuster style. (still long legs compared to HD blockbusters)



theRepublic on 02 June 2009

Do you agree that it will be a large margin?

Mario Galaxy is currently at 8 million units.

What do you think for New Super Mario Bros Wii? 10 million? 12 million? More?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
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PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

Azelover on 02 June 2009

especially if you CAN'T play online.

I'm sorry, but one thing people haven't realized yet, and don't want to realize, is that while nice, online play botches sales, doesn't increase it. Only when it forces you to get friends involved, people who don't have the game will it drive growth.

Wii Sports would never have been as big as it was had it online play. Online creates a closed bubble of non-expansion, where mostly customers who were initially interested in the game get involved. Nintendo knows this to a degree.

If it has online then great, if it doesn't, greater.



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liquidninja on 02 June 2009

I hope so. I want more 2D platformers after this.



theRepublic on 02 June 2009

It seems that New Super Mario Bros Wii will NOT have online play. This info came from the roundtable with Miyamoto.

Does this change any predictions?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Mobile - Yugioh Duel Links (2017)
Mobile - Super Mario Run (2017)
PC - Borderlands 2 (2012)
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

Godot on 02 June 2009
theRepublic said:
It seems that New Super Mario Bros Wii will NOT have online play. This info came from the roundtable with Miyamoto.

Does this change any predictions?

No. This game is going to be huge, expecially in Japan.



How many cups of darkness have I drank over the years? Even I don't know...

 

Squilliam on 02 June 2009
Azelover said:

especially if you CAN'T play online.

I'm sorry, but one thing people haven't realized yet, and don't want to realize, is that while nice, online play botches sales, doesn't increase it. Only when it forces you to get friends involved, people who don't have the game will it drive growth.

Wii Sports would never have been as big as it was had it online play. Online creates a closed bubble of non-expansion, where mostly customers who were initially interested in the game get involved. Nintendo knows this to a degree.

If it has online then great, if it doesn't, greater.

That looks like reversed logic to me. It sounds like Nintendo doesn't have much online so you justify it with the above.

'Online creates a closed bubble of non-expansion, where mostly customers who were initially interested in the game get involved. Nintendo knows this to a degree.'

Yeah, say that to Facebook, twitter, World of Warcraft, bebo, err anything really.



Tease.

Avinash_Tyagi on 02 June 2009
theRepublic said:
It seems that New Super Mario Bros Wii will NOT have online play. This info came from the roundtable with Miyamoto.

Does this change any predictions?

No, not really, whether online play expands or contracts sales of a system, as the argument seems to be going, the fact is that this is going to be a hugely popular game, I mean a multiplayer sidescrolling mario is going to be hilarious fun to play with friends and family.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)