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Forums - Sales - Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

HanzoTheRazor on 23 May 2009

Warning! Warning! Warning... fanboy FAIL thread!



Playing and finishing games first>>>>>>>>>>Then talking!

Opinions are subjective and just like moods, can change.

TOP 12: Deus Ex, Shadow Man, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturn, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Metroid Prime, Zelda (series), Uncharted (series), FF Tactics, Persona (series), Demons Souls, Vagrant Story.

MOST WANTED: Deus Ex: Human Revolution, The Last Guardian, ICO/Shadow OTC HD

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HanzoTheRazor on 23 May 2009

What u fail to realise is that the PS3 has all the killer SW comming. Yet to reach it's sweet spot in pricing and will get a slim in the next 12 months. But, the games are what counts and boy, does the PS3 have amazing games comming!



Playing and finishing games first>>>>>>>>>>Then talking!

Opinions are subjective and just like moods, can change.

TOP 12: Deus Ex, Shadow Man, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturn, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Metroid Prime, Zelda (series), Uncharted (series), FF Tactics, Persona (series), Demons Souls, Vagrant Story.

MOST WANTED: Deus Ex: Human Revolution, The Last Guardian, ICO/Shadow OTC HD

Squilliam on 23 May 2009
Smashchu2 said:
greenmedic88 said:
Smashchu2 said:
@greenmedic88: uhhh, where to start
1)The PS3 will not match the PS1 or 2 in any way. Those systems turned a profit and sold over 100million units. The PS3 is struggling to beat the N64. This claim is just plain silly.
2)"Replacement by 2010? No. Announced in 2010? No." How? This isn't an answer.
3)
"But SCE can't afford to lose money on a price drop." Production cost drops are specifically to address this issue, not to simply repackage a previous product in an attempt to extend longevity. Lower production costs, fewer components, overall reduction in size and weight equates to smaller, lighter packaging, reduction in shelf/storage space for inventory, etc. All have the same effect of reducing overall cost to deliver product to the hands of the end consumer.

Good point, but you didn't address the systems stand in the market (no one is). The system is behind and isn't growing. Your claim would only work is the system has more units sold then it actually does.

@txrattlesnake: How you came to that conclusion I will never know. You claim the 360 will be the one to get the boot when it sells less then the PS3, has more million sellers, and is in demand more for consumers. The PS3 is also costing the company an arm and a leg (the 360 was never meant to make money). Look here

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39453&end=39950&weekly=1

Your claims are crazy. The Wii is growing faster then the other two. The PS3 and 360 are growing at the same rate despite the fact the 360 has been out longer. The Wii, from January to May, is doing worse then last year, but coupled with that fact that in 08 it has Brawl, Mario Kart and Wii Fit, and this year, Punch Out, it's doing really well.

Your claims just don't match up with the facts.

Nobody has been claiming the PS3 will move the same number of units as the PS2 or even the PS1 life time sales. That wasn't even the OP which was more along the lines of the PS3 will be out of production within what, a year or two?

As for the claims of seeing a PS4 in 2010 or even an announcement in 2010? Highly improbable. That was the answer. Support for the PS3 hasn't changed for the worse; if anything it's been growing.

Your wrong. I just posted numbers in the OP that said it was incoorect. I posted another chart that shows the same thing. If you beleive this, then prepair to be sorely disapointed.

I thought the production cost reduction and price reduction was self explanatory, but for clarification, dropping the price to $299 opens up a larger tier of consumers who won't pay more than $300 for a game console. $399 just isn't a broad market friendly price for consoles as the last 15-20 years have demonstrated. Drop the price and the sales won't stay the same any more than they did when the price dropped from $499 to $399. The demographics are very different from $499 to $399, and even more so from $399 to $299.

I would hope nobody will be dumbfounded when sales rates take off similarly following a major price reduction, following major production price reductions on the manufacturing and logistics end of distribution.

As IO have mentioned, price drops do not result in long term effects and do not produce long term consoles. The cube was cheaper than the PS2 and it didn't get the boost some people claim. The 360 is cheap then the Wii, and the Wii dominates. The fact that you beleive this despite the evidence points in the other dirrection is mind blowing. Lowering price does not mean you are doing well; it means you are doing crappy and need some way to get out of the hole. It is a sign of desperation. People play price drops off as good things. They are bad things. Let's look at the economics of this.

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j263/Smashchu/Demand_curve.gif

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j263/Smashchu/Demand_curve2.png

As they show, price drop will have little effect. The demand is the same. This is why cutting a products price is not significant since demand is not shifted but the equlibrium changes.

Your economics is problematic.

1. Theres no Supply curve, theres only one supplier and in this case its Sony. The market can be described as a competitive monopoly so supply and demand would intersect along the average total cost curve for Sony.

2. Demand curves are bowed inward because the demand for most consumer goods becomes more elastic as the price approaches the optimum for maximising revenue and it becomes less elastic thereafter. Your demand curves are bowed the wrong way for the PS3/360, your justification?



Tease.

HanzoTheRazor on 23 May 2009

More to add to what is "only" your fanboy wish thread; The whole 3rd party industry is calling a big comeback from SONY to take the No:1 spot with it's PS3. We should all ignor them tho, and listen to u and "Squilliam" as u are the experts.

Here is a question; how come the PS3 is by far the most expensive console and the 360 has had major price cuts and already at it's sweet spot, yet, the PS3 is keeping up with it reguardless? What do u honestly believe will happen when the PS3 gets all it's killer games, slim and all it's price cuts? Oh... wait, you already answered that. U think the PS3 will be discontinued.

It is a real shame u cannot change the title to your thread to what it trully is; WHY I "WANT" THE PS3 TO BE DISCONTINUED EARLY. Priceless!



Playing and finishing games first>>>>>>>>>>Then talking!

Opinions are subjective and just like moods, can change.

TOP 12: Deus Ex, Shadow Man, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturn, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Metroid Prime, Zelda (series), Uncharted (series), FF Tactics, Persona (series), Demons Souls, Vagrant Story.

MOST WANTED: Deus Ex: Human Revolution, The Last Guardian, ICO/Shadow OTC HD

Carl on 23 May 2009
Smashchu2 said:
txrattlesnake said:
Smashchu2 said:
txrattlesnake said:

You're going to see an increase in ownership from the 3 million that the PS3 has now in Japan to between 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after FFXIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 come out. Not to mention all the other PS3 games like Trico, PS3 Tales of Vesperia, and Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2, and whatever exclusive Kojima has brewing for the system next that Japanese gamers will also go nuts over.

The success of the PS3 in Japan and its far greater popularity there than the 360 will ever have in that nation guarantees that the PS3 won't be going away for a long time.

Wow, that sounded more like cheerleading.

I will say this. How will those games push the PS3? Why will they, despite only MGS4 has pushed PS3s?


     Do a bit of research.  Almost every FF main series game has sold multiple millions of copies in Japan.  Both FFVII and FFX sold over 3 million copies in Japan (VII came very close to selling 4 million there).  Even FF X-2 sold over 2 million copies in Japan.  So, even if you say half the people that were going to buy those games have already bought a PS3 in Japan.  that still leaves about two million PS3s to be sold in Japan on the strength of FF XIII, Versus XIII, and GT5.  Of course when the PS3 has over 5 million consoles sold in Japan while the 360 has less than 1.5 million many more Japanese developers will be making their hd rpgs as PS3 exclusives as a result (and it will always be in Japanese developers' best interest to port any game that they do make as an exclusive for 360 over to the PS3 see Tales of Vesperia and Star Ocean 4 failing to sell half of what the last one on PS2 did).

I did do research. In fact, I proved your claim as false. Lookie here:http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2®1=Japan&cons2=GC®2=------&cons3=XB®3=------&start=38662&end=38914

When FF12 came out in Japan, it pushed software sightly, but it didn't make a dramatic shirt. Now, we have the PS3 that is much more expensive and has overshoot the mass market. It wont push sales that much. The same is true of Gran Turismo (the prolouge didn't sell well compaired to the others, leading me to beleive it wont be a big hit).

The problem with your claim is that nothing has changed. People said the same thing of MGS4 and KZ2 amoung others. Yet none of them have changed the market. While everyone tries to hype up these games, the results are usually not as high as Sony fans wished.

Lol are you serious?

Saying GT5 wont sell well... are you even sane?

GT5:Prologue is the best selling "Prologue" game, if you're comparing it to the full releases... then you are daft.



                            

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HanzoTheRazor on 23 May 2009

Most are aware of why these doom and gloom PS3 threads are popping up heaps now. Fear! These threads are damadge control for the silly fanboys for 2 reasons; 1. M$ sales are pathetic with their prices. 2. Most know in their hearts that this E3 and 2009 is going to be massive for SONY, (they can smell it) and more than likely quiet for MS. Smell the fear people. Classic!



Playing and finishing games first>>>>>>>>>>Then talking!

Opinions are subjective and just like moods, can change.

TOP 12: Deus Ex, Shadow Man, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturn, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Metroid Prime, Zelda (series), Uncharted (series), FF Tactics, Persona (series), Demons Souls, Vagrant Story.

MOST WANTED: Deus Ex: Human Revolution, The Last Guardian, ICO/Shadow OTC HD

Squilliam on 23 May 2009

@ Carl: GT5P is the only prologue to have been on the market this long before the actual game came out and its the only prologue which came out before any other GT game has come to the market. Its not directly comparable to other prologue games and can only be used to imply but not as evidence to indicate future GT5 sales.



Tease.

Squilliam on 23 May 2009
HanzoTheRazor said:
Most are aware of why these doom and gloom PS3 threads are popping up heaps now. Fear! These threads are damadge control for the silly fanboys for 2 reasons; 1. M$ sales are pathetic with their prices. 2. Most know in their hearts that this E3 and 2009 is going to be massive for SONY, (they can smell it) and more than likely quiet for MS. Smell the fear people. Classic!

Im so scared...

Joke! Hahahahahahahahahaha you're very funny.



Tease.

Carl on 23 May 2009

@ Squill.
It was a reply to how he said it hasnt sold as well as the others
And as we all know... GT5 WILL sell tons.



                            

Squilliam on 23 May 2009

@ Carl, its the definition of ton that really gets people. Hopefully the game won't be set up to have 10M sales as the expectation, because then its sales will never really be appreciated. Hell even Halo 3 would have been seen as a great seller at only 6-7M LTD sales. Its important to understand that anything above 5M sales is excellent and anything over 10M+ is just icing on the cake rather than the expectation.



Tease.