I know a "Wicked Burn" might feel satisfying, but it does not really demonstrate any real understanding of the market or provide any reason why the outcome will be as you predict.

Somewhere in the range of 90% to 95% of all third party games released on the PS3 or XBox 360 are multiplatform games. If you take out the exclusive games where there was some-sort of monetary benefit given by the console manufacturer to develop the game exclusive for their system, it is quite accurate to claim that neither platform can justify much exclusive third party support based on its sales alone.

Certainly, both platforms have big selling games, but when your average game costs $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 to develop and it receives sales in the 333,000 to 666,000 on each platform it is difficult to justify putting it on one platform exclusively. Just because the XBox 360 is replaced by Microsoft doesn’t mean that third party publishers will be able to justify exclusive PS3 support, which means that it is unlikely that support would dry up after Microsoft replaces the XBox 360.

The Wii is in a different boat all together where its low development costs and high userbase really does justify a lot of exclusive and pseudo-exclusive (built from the ground up ports) games; and even if sales begin to decline, it will take years for the entire userbase to move onto something new, which means that it will justify exclusive and pseudo-exclusive games for years after a new generation begins.

When you add this all together, if Microsoft begins a new generation by releasing an advanced system the XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to exist and will (likely) continue to have almost identical game libraries. As the generation goes on the PS3 will be facing competition from new hardware which takes away the selling features that are driving the PS3 today (powerful and advanced hardware), it will face very similar competition at a lower price point (the XBox 360), and it will face competition which has always been more popular and can justify greater residual development based on sales alone (Wii).

In other words, as soon as the next generation begins the PS3 will face competiton in all directions which has noticeable advantages over it. It could quite easily become the "Middle Child" who is easily ignored because it isn't powerful enough, inexpensive enough or popular enough to get the attention of consumers.

Sorry but the Wii pwning in sales proves the spec arguement is moot these days.

As for price arguement by the time a 720 comes out a PS3 will be sub $200. MS is the only company that has anything to gain from a 720 as they will be looking to put DVD and RROD behind them.

Now I see your counter to this already: "how can the PS3 be $200 by 2012 Sony losses blah blah blah". But you know in your heart that it will be the case. So good luck to the $600 720 in 2012.

I know a "Wicked Burn" might feel satisfying, but it does not really demonstrate any real understanding of the market or provide any reason why the outcome will be as you predict.

Somewhere in the range of 90% to 95% of all third party games released on the PS3 or XBox 360 are multiplatform games. If you take out the exclusive games where there was some-sort of monetary benefit given by the console manufacturer to develop the game exclusive for their system, it is quite accurate to claim that neither platform can justify much exclusive third party support based on its sales alone.

Certainly, both platforms have big selling games, but when your average game costs $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 to develop and it receives sales in the 333,000 to 666,000 on each platform it is difficult to justify putting it on one platform exclusively. Just because the XBox 360 is replaced by Microsoft doesn’t mean that third party publishers will be able to justify exclusive PS3 support, which means that it is unlikely that support would dry up after Microsoft replaces the XBox 360.

The Wii is in a different boat all together where its low development costs and high userbase really does justify a lot of exclusive and pseudo-exclusive (built from the ground up ports) games; and even if sales begin to decline, it will take years for the entire userbase to move onto something new, which means that it will justify exclusive and pseudo-exclusive games for years after a new generation begins.

When you add this all together, if Microsoft begins a new generation by releasing an advanced system the XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to exist and will (likely) continue to have almost identical game libraries. As the generation goes on the PS3 will be facing competition from new hardware which takes away the selling features that are driving the PS3 today (powerful and advanced hardware), it will face very similar competition at a lower price point (the XBox 360), and it will face competition which has always been more popular and can justify greater residual development based on sales alone (Wii).

In other words, as soon as the next generation begins the PS3 will face competiton in all directions which has noticeable advantages over it. It could quite easily become the "Middle Child" who is easily ignored because it isn't powerful enough, inexpensive enough or popular enough to get the attention of consumers.

You make a statement like HS knowing in his heart the PS3 will be $200 by 2012 and follow that up with a $600 X720?

Does not compute.

     If Gears 3 is going to be on 720 and the majority of the 360's biggest games in the future will be Rare games.  That is a boon to the PS3.

    And I don't think Wii 100 million

                                PS3 70 million

                                360 50 million

   puts ps3 on top of anything this gen except the hd consoles, but still that ensures a fairly long shelf life.

@smashchu2

"two, the PS3 Slim looks like its real, or people wouldnt have issued cease and desist orders for it, that will further drop production costs, but it will retain the same price point if the PS2 slim is a guide, meaning profit on every unit sold.

To consumers, there is no value to it. They will know it's a PS3 that is slim (that's it's name), but they wont care. Smaller does not equal better in the consumer's mind. Nintendo was able to create a mass market because they know what consumers wanted. The games on the PS3 appeal to the core users. There is a very limited number of them. The slim wont save the system."


You make this statement yet back it up with nothing but your opinion. Fine, my opinion on the matter is that consumers will care. The console will be less expensive and will be smaller, what's not to like?

As for 3rd party suppourt leaving en masse, I don't see that happening and the reason is that the Wii doesn't sell enough 3rd party software. Look at COD:WAW, despite having more than double the PS3 user base the PS3 still sold 3x the amount that the Wii did. Now why on earth would developers abandon a console that sells games for them for a console with a larger install base that sells less?