txrattlesnake said:
How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360? It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years. With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate. Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales. |
It took less than a year:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39040&end=39327&weekly=1
But that is because the Wii was routinely selling close to 200,000 more units per week:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39040&end=39327
Look at the chart. Find how much more you think that the PS3 will sell over the 360 on average each week. It will then tell you how many weeks it will take to catch the 360.
Personally, I think this gen will be pretty much over in around 3 to 3.5 years. That means to catch the 360, the PS3 will have to sell between 44,000 and 51,000 units more than the 360. I don't see that happening. Even if it did, that would basically be a tie, and wouldn't change anything in the market.
For any meaningful change in the market to occur, the PS3 would have to pass the 360 in the next year or two. That would mean that the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 76,000 to 153,0000 units per week. I really don't see that happening.
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