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Forums - Sales - Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.


twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

It took less than a year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327&weekly=1

But that is because the Wii was routinely selling close to 200,000 more units per week:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327

Look at the chart.  Find how much more you think that the PS3 will sell over the 360 on average each week.  It will then tell you how many weeks it will take to catch the 360.

Personally, I think this gen will be pretty much over in around 3 to 3.5 years.  That means to catch the 360, the PS3 will have to sell between 44,000 and 51,000 units more than the 360.  I don't see that happening.  Even if it did, that would basically be a tie, and wouldn't change anything in the market.

For any meaningful change in the market to occur, the PS3 would have to pass the 360 in the next year or two.  That would mean that the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 76,000 to 153,0000 units per week.  I really don't see that happening.



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psrock said:
Man, you posted Super Mario world with 5 reviews and you are arguing number of reviews. Look how many reviews Zelda OCARINA OF TIME have and people claim it to be the best ever game.

hey I didn't even mention SMW I was just too lazy to cut it :P



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theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.


twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

It took less than a year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327&weekly=1

But that is because the Wii was routinely selling close to 200,000 more units per week:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327

Look at the chart.  Find how much more you think that the PS3 will sell over the 360 on average each week.  It will then tell you how many weeks it will take to catch the 360.

Personally, I think this gen will be pretty much over in around 3 to 3.5 years.  That means to catch the 360, the PS3 will have to sell between 44,000 and 51,000 units more than the 360.  I don't see that happening.  Even if it did, that would basically be a tie, and wouldn't change anything in the market.

For any meaningful change in the market to occur, the PS3 would have to pass the 360 in the next year or two.  That would mean that the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 76,000 to 153,0000 units per week.  I really don't see that happening.

christmas can do wonders.

even if does 360 will get replaced first. first to come. first to leave.



Jo21 said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.


twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

It took less than a year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327&weekly=1

But that is because the Wii was routinely selling close to 200,000 more units per week:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327

Look at the chart.  Find how much more you think that the PS3 will sell over the 360 on average each week.  It will then tell you how many weeks it will take to catch the 360.

Personally, I think this gen will be pretty much over in around 3 to 3.5 years.  That means to catch the 360, the PS3 will have to sell between 44,000 and 51,000 units more than the 360.  I don't see that happening.  Even if it did, that would basically be a tie, and wouldn't change anything in the market.

For any meaningful change in the market to occur, the PS3 would have to pass the 360 in the next year or two.  That would mean that the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 76,000 to 153,0000 units per week.  I really don't see that happening.

christmas can do wonders.

even if does 360 will get replaced first. first to come. first to leave.

Once a new gen starts, its game over.  It doesn't matter if the PS3 passes the 360 after that.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Mobile - Yugioh Duel Links (2017)
Mobile - Super Mario Run (2017)
PC - Borderlands 2 (2012)
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

theRepublic said:
Jo21 said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:
theRepublic said:
txrattlesnake said:

I'm not giving snakes a bad name. If the PS3 gets GT5 and then it gets FFXIII and they live up to their usuals sales levels as they should in Japan and in the end move the PS3 to where it has sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan, then it gets a couple of more Kojima games and Kingdom Hearts 3 on top of that will it pass the Wii in the end probably not. But with those games and the others that will follow in their wake, it will surely pass the 50 million mark.

So, those are my numbers 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after the release of FF Versus XIII bringing more Japanese exclusives to the PS3 as a result.

And 50 to 70 million PS3s sold worldwide LTD putting it firmly in second place when this gen ends.


twesterm said:

Whenever I see threads like this I like to bring out this handy little chart I made:

You can speculate all you want about prices and what can and can't happen, but this chart paints a pretty clear picture.  In order to overtake 360 worldwide sales in three years, the PS3 would have to outsell it by 51k per week every week for the next three years.  That just isn't going to happen.

The only reasonable figure on there is the 5 figure (260 weeks) and that's 31k per week every week for fives years.  By the time five years is over the "winner" of this generation will have already been long decided and it just won't matter.

So yeah, just accept there's absolutely zero chance of the PS3 overtaking the 360 in worldwide sales or in the Americas.  It's possible it may happen in Others, but even that can't happen for several years.

I'm not saying the PS3 is a failure by any means, I'm just say it can't "win" and it can't overtake the 360 in a reasonable amount of time.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2202853

     How long did it take the Wii to catch the 360?  It seems like it didn't take it anywhere near three years.

With dramatically better exclusives on PS3 than 360 the PS3 could start to overtake the 360 much quicker than you speculate.  Especially if there aren't any significant games or only a few Rare games being placed on the 360 at the same time the PS3 is making up the majority of those sales.

It took less than a year:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327&weekly=1

But that is because the Wii was routinely selling close to 200,000 more units per week:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39040&end=39327

Look at the chart.  Find how much more you think that the PS3 will sell over the 360 on average each week.  It will then tell you how many weeks it will take to catch the 360.

Personally, I think this gen will be pretty much over in around 3 to 3.5 years.  That means to catch the 360, the PS3 will have to sell between 44,000 and 51,000 units more than the 360.  I don't see that happening.  Even if it did, that would basically be a tie, and wouldn't change anything in the market.

For any meaningful change in the market to occur, the PS3 would have to pass the 360 in the next year or two.  That would mean that the PS3 would have to outsell the 360 by 76,000 to 153,0000 units per week.  I really don't see that happening.

christmas can do wonders.

even if does 360 will get replaced first. first to come. first to leave.

Once a new gen starts, its game over.  It doesn't matter if the PS3 passes the 360 after that.

Yea, keep saying that to yourself. If by some miracle  Xbox outsells PS2 or GBA outsells PS2, people would made that news bigger than moon landing.

 

 



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Yep the only console that will be "game over" for when the 720 comes out will be the 360.



Hmmmm



BladeOfGod said:
theRepublic said:

Once a new gen starts, its game over.  It doesn't matter if the PS3 passes the 360 after that.

Yea, keep saying that to yourself. If by some miracle  Xbox outsells PS2 or GBA outsells PS2, people would made that news bigger than moon landing.

 

 

There is a profound difference in outselling a generational competitor after the generation ends (especially if it wasn't even in first place) and outselling sales landmarks of the past.

Had GC outsold Xbox after X360 launched it really wouldn't have meant squat (same scenario as PS3 outselling X360 after X720 releases).  Xbox was just an in generation rival, it wasn't a sales landmark.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

^There's no profound difference, because there's no profound sense in the terms you're using.
Outselling as in what? Overtracking? Sales per week? Total sales?
Generation rival as in what? When will this generation end?

They are all conventions, often used in poor data analysis and for use in ego boosting, don't put more semantic weight on their frail shoulders. They can't carry it.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

Megadude said:
Yep the only console that will be "game over" for when the 720 comes out will be the 360.


I know a "Wicked Burn" might feel satisfying, but it does not really demonstrate any real understanding of the market or provide any reason why the outcome will be as you predict.

Somewhere in the range of 90% to 95% of all third party games released on the PS3 or XBox 360 are multiplatform games. If you take out the exclusive games where there was some-sort of monetary benefit given by the console manufacturer to develop the game exclusive for their system, it is quite accurate to claim that neither platform can justify much exclusive third party support based on its sales alone.

Certainly, both platforms have big selling games, but when your average game costs $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 to develop and it receives sales in the 333,000 to 666,000 on each platform it is difficult to justify putting it on one platform exclusively. Just because the XBox 360 is replaced by Microsoft doesn’t mean that third party publishers will be able to justify exclusive PS3 support, which means that it is unlikely that support would dry up after Microsoft replaces the XBox 360.

The Wii is in a different boat all together where its low development costs and high userbase really does justify a lot of exclusive and pseudo-exclusive (built from the ground up ports) games; and even if sales begin to decline, it will take years for the entire userbase to move onto something new, which means that it will justify exclusive and pseudo-exclusive games for years after a new generation begins.

When you add this all together, if Microsoft begins a new generation by releasing an advanced system the XBox 360 and PS3 will continue to exist and will (likely) continue to have almost identical game libraries. As the generation goes on the PS3 will be facing competition from new hardware which takes away the selling features that are driving the PS3 today (powerful and advanced hardware), it will face very similar competition at a lower price point (the XBox 360), and it will face competition which has always been more popular and can justify greater residual development based on sales alone (Wii).

In other words, as soon as the next generation begins the PS3 will face competiton in all directions which has noticeable advantages over it. It could quite easily become the "Middle Child" who is easily ignored because it isn't powerful enough, inexpensive enough or popular enough to get the attention of consumers.