Considering the amount of hype and developer expectations (10 million lifetime), it should sell at least 750k first week.

That was obviously a joke from the guys of HV. Am i to presume that you already think it bombed, you being a x-box fanboy?

 It's Esa-Petteri, I'm sure he does.

On topic: I think it needs to do at least 300k to be considered a succes by most Wii-sceptical gamers and ''professionals''. Which is quite unrealistic, I think it will do 50-150k first week, but still sell 0.5-1.2 million lifetime.

Well, that is the expectations I've read from the developers. Do you have some newer link to other kind of numbers?

Considering the following factors;

1. High Wii install Base
2. Low FPS competition
3. First week sales of big FPS games on rival systems

Anything under 700k week 1 would be a flop. Lifetime, anything under 4-5 million would be a failure.

@mikescoff

Lol, you have got to be kidding. People only expect that from huge first party games for all consoles. So I take it Killzone 2 was a big flop then?

GoW1, not first party and a new IP. 910k first week. KZ2, 750k 1st week. Both had a fraction of the Wii's install base.

i think if it opens up with any thing less than 300000 than people will say it bombed, but I think the actual numbers will be closer to 100000-150000 range

Microsoft published GoW, so it's as good as first party.
KZ 2 had a good launch, but it will not reach 4 million. So it's still a flop.

Nobody expects those numbers from TCon. I don't know where you're getting them. The hype is no where near as big as games on PS360. I'd say 300k for it not to be considered a flop, but it will likely not launch with those numbers and fanboys will scream Dooooomm!