How big will The Conduit have to open to NOT have cries of "it's a bomb!"?

[Hyperion]

Microsoft published GoW, so it's as good as first party.
KZ 2 had a good launch, but it will not reach 4 million. So it's still a flop.

Nobody expects those numbers from TCon. I don't know where you're getting them. The hype is no where near as big as games on PS360. I'd say 300k for it not to be considered a flop, but it will likely not launch with those numbers and fanboys will scream Dooooomm!